Are Tariffs Over? Court Ruling Isn't the End

by Jeffrey Kleintop, Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab, 6/4/25

A U.S. trade court this week blocked much of President Donald Trump's tariff regime, including the across-the-board 10% tariff on all imports, higher tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico, and the "reciprocal" tariffs—a fluctuating range of levies on dozens of countries that he announced in early April before pausing them for 90 days. Does this mean the trade war is over? Not necessarily. Here's what has happened and what it may mean for investors.

The administration is appealing the ruling

The Trump administration quickly filed an appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which could then be appealed again to the Supreme Court. The administration said it would ask the courts to consider its appeals immediately. If the decision is upheld, importers should eventually be able to get a refund of tariffs paid to date, but the government will probably seek to avoid paying refunds until appeals are exhausted. The administration has asked for a stay on the ruling, which if granted, keeps the tariffs in place and sets up a long legal battle.

If the stay is not granted, the Trump administration is likely to come up with other means to increase tariffs—either through using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows a 15% across-the-board tariff for 150 days, or Section 338, which allows for up to a 50% rate. Sector-specific tariffs on semiconductors and related products, and on pharmaceuticals (where investigations to determine the national security implications of trade of these goods are already underway) could be accelerated. Another option is that Section 301 tariffs—used on Chinese imports in the first Trump administration—could be used on other countries or sectors.