Takeaways
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Q4 S&P 500® EPS growth expected to come in at 16.4%, the highest growth rate in three years
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Large cap outlier earnings dates this week include: MCD, GILD, PAYC, PANW
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The second week of peak season begins this week, with 1,879 companies expected to report.
To call last week a whirlwind for investors is an understatement. What started out with the US imposing tariffs on a number of trade partners, causing markets to drop early Monday, ended with 30-day tariff pauses on Canada and Mexico, and a mixed bag of tech earnings.
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week. After the initial scare, investors appear to have decided the development of cheap generative AI is good for companies in the space, taking META, AAPL, AMZN stock prices higher on the news. Company executives also signaled that DeepSeek’s ability to produce cheaper generative AI tools was a win for the adoption and cost management of the technology. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella spoke to this on the company’s Q4 call saying “DeepSeek has had some real innovations” and “Obviously now that all gets commoditized and it’s going to get broadly used.”1 Similarly, Meta Platform’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the emergence of DeepSeek validated its decision to make its AI free to use with the goal of accelerating adoption and lowering costs.2
Google’s parent company, Alphabet is a name that is expected to benefit from AI demand, but results on Tuesday may have disappointed investors when revenues missed estimates. Youtube ad revenue, search revenue and Google Cloud revenue were softer year-over-year. GOOGL also caught investors off-guard by announcing CAPEX of $75B for the year, vs. expectations that were closer to $60B.3
Advanced Micro Devices also let down investors with their Q4 results. Last week we featured their later than usual report date which led to their negative DateBreak score for the quarter. After reporting results that surpassed top and bottom-line estimates on Tuesday, it was declining data center revenue, their bread-and-butter, which may have soured investors.4 The stock fell nearly 7% in the following day of trading. Heading into the season, AMD received a number of analyst downgrades, from the likes of Bank of America5, HSBC6 and Goldman Sachs7, due to revenue concerns and competition from Nvidia.
Amazon was anticipated to be a winner this earnings season, but soft guidance led to a 4% decline in the stock in the following trading day. Revenue guidance for Q1 was lighter than expected, with a range of $151B - $155.5B suggesting mid to high-single digit growth.8 Amazon’s slowest quarter of revenue growth in recent history was the 7.2% they reported in Q2 2022, the weakest in two decades. Why the disappointing outlook? “This guidance anticipates an unusually large, unfavorable impact of approximately $2.1 billion, or 150 basis points, from foreign exchange rates,” Amazon indicated in their earnings release.
Palantir was a bright spot in tech last week. The stock surged 24% to a record high after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance in Q4 due to AI demand. The company saw revenue for its U.S. commercial segment increase 64% and revenue for its U.S. government segment increase 45% YoY.9
With 62% of companies from the S&P 500 now having released results for Q4, growth is at 16.4%, the highest level in 3 years.10
On Deck this Week
This week marks the second peak week of earnings season with 1,879 companies (in our global universe of 11k) set to report, and 78 from the S&P 500. The hotels, restaurants & leisure sub-sector will be in focus with names like McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Marriott, Wynn and Hilton reporting their fourth quarter results, as well as the enterprise tech space when Hubspot, Palo Alto Networks and Twilio also release quarterly results.
Academic research shows that when a company confirms a quarterly earnings date that is later than when they have historically reported, it’s typically a sign that the company will share bad news on their upcoming call, while moving a release date earlier suggests the opposite.11
This week we get results from a number of large companies on major indexes that have pushed their Q4 2024 earnings dates outside of their historical norms. Twelve companies within the S&P 500 confirmed outlier earnings dates for this week, thirteen of which are later than usual and therefore have negative DateBreaks Factors*. Those names are ON Semiconductor (ON), Rockwell Automation (ROK), McDonald’s (MCD), S&P Global (SPGI), Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Paycom Software (PAYC), Motorola Solutions (MSI). The three names with positive DateBreak Factors are NiSource (NI), Albemarle Corp. (ALB) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
McDonald’s
Company Confirmed Report Date: Monday, February 10, BMO
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, January 30, BMO
DateBreaks Factor: -3*
* Wall Street Horizon DateBreaks Factor: statistical measurement of how an earnings date (confirmed or revised) compares to the reporting company's 5-year trend for the same quarter. Negative means the earnings date is confirmed to be later than historical average while Positive is earlier.
McDonald’s is set to report their Q4 2024 results on Monday, February 10, eleven days later than expected. While they are still adhering to their Monday reporting trend started last year they have pushed their report into the 7th week of the year (WOY), after reporting in the 6th WOY last year and the 5th WOY in the decade prior. This will be the latest MCD has reported for Q4 in ten years, and only the second time they have reported in February.
Palo Alto Networks
Company Confirmed Report Date: Thursday, February 13, AMC
Projected Report Date (based on historical data): Thursday, February 20, AMC
DateBreaks Factor: 3*
Palo Alto Networks is set to report their FQ2 2025 results on Thursday, February 13, a week earlier than expected. They are also reporting on a Thursday versus their usual Tuesday reporting date, and have pulled their report into the 7th week of the year (WOY), after reporting in the 8th WOY for the last two years, and the 9th WOY in the prior eight years. This will be the earliest PANW has reported their FQ2 in ten years.
Q4 Earnings Wave
We are well into peak earnings season at this point, which runs from February 3 - 28 this year, with each week expected to see over 1,200 reports. Currently, February 27 is predicted to be the most active day with 877 companies anticipated to report. Thus far, 68% of companies have confirmed their earnings date (out of our universe of 11,000+ global names), and 26% have reported results.
1 Tech CEOs try to reassure Wall Street after DeepSeek Shock, The Washington Post, January 30, 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com
2 META Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript, January 29, 2025, https://s21.q4cdn.com
3 Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Results, February 4, 2025 https://abc.xyz
4 AMD Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results, February 4, 2025, https://ir.amd.com
5 Bank of America downgrades AMD due to potential market share losses, CNBC, by Lisa Kailai Han, December 9, 2024, https://www.cnbc.com
6 AMD Stock Slumps After Double Downgrade by HSBC on AI Revenue Concerns, Investopedia.com, by Andrew Kessel, January 8, 2025, https://www.investopedia.com
7 AMD Stock Downgraded. Goldman Names This Surprise Among AI Chip Picks for 2025, Barrons, Elsa Ohlen, January 10, 2025, https://www.barrons.com
8 Amazon.com Announces Fourth Quarter Results, February 6, 2025 https://s2.q4cdn.com/
9 Palantir Reports Q4 2024 Revenue Growth of 36% Y/Y, February 3, 2025 https://investors.palantir.com
10 Earnings Insight, FactSet, John Butters, February 7, 2025, https://advantage.factset.com
11 Time Will Tell: Information in the Timing of Scheduled Earnings News, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Eric C. So, Travis L. Johnson, Dec, 2018, https://papers.ssrn.com
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