Muni Investors, Take Heed of Fed Pause

The Fed’s Easing Cycles Are Much Faster Than Its Hiking Cycles

Still doing “T-bill and chill”? As a strategy, rolling Treasury bills may have worked well so far this year, but history suggests it’s time for municipal bond investors to get off the sidelines and back into the market—and soon.

The Federal Reserve has spent the last 21 months tightening monetary policy. Now, like a coiled spring, that policy is poised to reverse, delivering a big potential price boost to bonds. Since 1970, the Fed has tightened slowly (taking the stairs up) but eased fast (taking the elevator down). Historically, a tightening cycle lasted 10.6 months on average; the subsequent pause to look around and evaluate lasted an average six months; and the trip back down lasted, on average, just 3.6 months (Display, above).