The Outlook for 2024-26

"There will be obstacles. There will be doubters. There will be mistakes. But with hard work, there are no limits."

Michael Phelps


Recently, I was asked by a client what my return expectations are for the next three years. The client is British and asked me to provide two estimates – one for UK equities and one for equities worldwide. The following is a summary of my response to him. As most of our readers are not British, in the following, I will focus on our global outlook; however, at the very end, I will provide a brief explanation why I expect UK equities to do better than global equities over the next few years.

Before tackling this month’s topic, I would like to briefly mention that, only a few days ago, we launched a new megatrend-focused investment vehicle. As most of you will be aware, our approach to investing is very thematic. Seven megatrends (which you can read more about here) drive our investment strategy, and our new investment vehicle will focus on themes linked to those megatrends; however, I also ought to mention that the new investment vehicle is an Alternative Investment Fund (AIF), meaning that it is not open to retail investors. That said, if you would like to receive further information, feel free to contact us.

The economic logic behind our stance

Now to the main topic. Financial markets always affect household wealth at the aggregate level, and I believe the impact could be noticeable over the next few years. Household wealth is the sum (ex. debt) of property wealth, pension savings, the value of direct financial investments and non-financial investments – e.g. family-owned businesses. In the following, I will only look at financial investments made in public markets, as that is where the majority of our readers have most of their capital invested.