The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?

"I never saw a bureaucracy produce a single barrel of oil." - Rex Tillerson

Saxo Bank’s Ten Outrageous Predictions

If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others. In January, we focus on issues we think you should worry most about as we enter another year, and we have made it a tradition to open with Saxo Bank’s Ten Outrageous Predictions, some of which are not as outrageous as you may think they are.

While the ten predictions do not constitute Saxo Bank’s official forecasts for 2022, they “represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising. It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus.” (Source: Saxo Bank.)

Let’s dig in. As we enter 2022, the ten Outrageous Predictions are as follows:

1. The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check.

2. Facebook faceplants on youth exodus.

3. The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis.

4. US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral.

5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defence announced, to be funded by private pensions.

6. Women’s Reddit Army takes on the corporate patriarchy.

7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member.

8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform.

9. New hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war.

10. Medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years.