US Treasuries, German Bunds Still Anchor to Windward

Correlations between government bonds and stocks in 2020, for the US on the left, and for Europe on the right.

With central banks anchoring official rates at historic lows, investors are understandably concerned that government bonds won’t act as an offset to equity risk the way they have in the past. But recent history suggests that low—and even negative—yields don’t eliminate the buffer that’s provided by government bonds.

In fact, amid the dramatic sell-off in risk assets earlier this year as the global pandemic took hold, and again in September when equity markets pulled back, government bonds served as one of the few true offsets to equity market volatility.

For example, throughout 2020, the correlation between US Treasuries and the S&P 500 (Display, left) has remained below –0.4 on down days for the stock market.