As the party conventions conclude and the general election campaign begins, the national polls lean toward Democrat Joe Biden. But presidents are determined by the Electoral College, not by popular vote. As we head into the general election, we can begin to analyze each candidate's path to 270 electoral votes and the presidency. The analysis below is purely mathematical. We are not favoring a candidate or predicting who will win.
The winners of some states are all but determined ahead of time. Not surprisingly, the total electoral votes in these pre-determined states favor the Democrats, due to the party’s almost certain wins in the states with the most electoral votes, New York and California. By our calculation, in these pre-determined states, Joe Biden has 232 electoral votes firmly supporting him, and Donald Trump has 204, giving Biden a 28 vote lead.
That leaves six toss-up states that will determine the election:
|
Electoral votes |
||
|
Florida |
29 |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
20 |
|
|
Michigan |
16 |
|
|
North Carolina |
15 |
|
|
Arizona |
11 |
|
|
Wisconsin |
10 |
Of these toss-up states, Florida is the most crucial.
- If Trump wins Florida, his additional 29 votes wipe out Biden’s 28 vote advantage, leaving Trump with 233 electoral votes, in a virtual tie with Biden at 232. The election then becomes a scramble for the remaining five states.
- If Biden wins Florida, his lead will increase by 29 votes, bringing him to 261 electoral votes. Under this scenario, Biden needs to capture only one of the other toss-up states to get to 270 and win the presidency. Put otherwise, if Biden wins Florida, Trump must win all five of the remaining toss-up states to prevail.
Trump’s easiest path to victory begins with a win in Florida. An alternative, but more difficult, path has Trump winning all five of the remaining toss-up states. The latter path is daunting, but keep in mind that in 2016 Trump captured all five toss-up states and Florida.
The above analysis is one part of our current virtual and in-person presentation. We go on to discuss how other factors bear on the election result, such as the COVID-19 crisis and the dramatic growth in voting by mail. We also consider the likelihood of Congress passing another coronavirus relief bill, and the bill provisions of particular interest to investors and advisors. Finally, we review how the fallout from the COVID-19 crisis will affect the country’s fiscal position and U.S. / China relations.
Our pre-election calendar is filling quickly, and we don’t want to shut out any of our clients. If you wish to schedule a presentation, contact us here or through the "Contact Us" button on our website below.
© The Washington Update
