In a televised national address last week, President Trump assured the public that his administration has had “tremendous success” battling the coronavirus, that the risk to Americans is “very low”, and that only “one or two people will be infected over the next short period of time”. These assurances are at odds with the CDC’s more dire pronouncements.
If the virus in fact becomes a national crisis, it might have a bearing on how a segment of voters decides whether to support the President in any of three ways:
Capability: Trump’s ability to respond to a national crisis might be called into question in some voters’ minds.
Credibility: For the most part, Trump’s supporters have ignored his exaggerations, presumably because the matters do not affect them directly. But, if the virus becomes widespread in the U.S., some of those voters, looking back at his televised speech, might question his credibility.
Economics: The market drop caused by supply chain interruption could erode consumer confidence. Lower confidence could diminish domestic demand, leading to dips in production, employment, and wage growth. Even if the spread of the virus slows, the economic fallout could linger until after Election Day.
The percent of voters who approve of Trump’s handling of the economy exceeds the percent who approve of Trump’s performance and conduct in office (a seven point difference in a recent representative poll). An economic downturn could place in jeopardy the support of the former group, voters who support Trump due to the strong economy.
Not all these marginal voters will react negatively to an economic downturn. Some might view the virus as out of Trump’s control, and believe that he will reconstitute the strong economy when the effects pass, just as (in their view) he produced a strong economy after he took office. Nonetheless, a prolonged economic reversal could erode support among some voters who view the state of the economy as paramount.
Democratic candidates are not immune to the effects of the coronavirus. The spread could lead to the cancellation of rallies and fundraising events, causing candidates to rely more heavily on media advertising. This shift would favor candidates with large advertising budgets -- particularly Mayor Bloomberg, whose media budget is limitless.
