Has the S&P 500 gone loco? Or is it behaving normally?
Many strategists are characterizing the current advance as a “blow off” move. But on what evidence? Cyclical bull markets typically run three years or longer. By our reckoning, the current example originated in January 2016. The chart below averages 17 cyclical rallies since 1949. Only one case lasted less than two years.
Bull markets take time to develop, and time to run their course. Today’s rally has room to run, if history is any guide.
