- Much of the pick-up in economic growth, as well as the earnings turn, pre-dated the election and shouldn’t be fully credited to President Trump.
- Growth has accelerated globally; while nominal growth in the United States is under-appreciated.
- Recent consolidation in stocks likely about sentiment having gotten a tad too frothy.
Trumponomics, the Trump Trade, the Trump Rally—and more recently Trumpocalypse—you've heard them all. Now you'll read a story (and perhaps hum a tune) about economic inflection points and a stronger stock market which may have had little to do with the results of the election. I'm not dismissing the impact on confidence readings of the hope for pro-growth Trump administration policies, but as we've been pointing out for several months, many of the fundamentals supporting stocks had their inflection points pre-election.
One of these things...
This week I broke from my long tradition of using rock song titles for my reports. But recently I recalled fondly a Sesame Street song from my childhood, with these catchy lyrics:
One of these things is not like the others
One of these things just doesn't belong
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?
It popped back into my head the other day when I looked at this chain of charts:
Source: FactSet, The Conference Board, as of March 31, 2017.