Question: What yield on 30-year Treasury bonds would produce a cyclical bottom comparable to others of the past three decades? Answer: A yield of 3.3%-3.5%, depending on how quickly it arrives, would create a full reversion to long-term channel support.
This is potentially useful information, as yield is currently hovering near 3.0%. Yes, we can contemplate a secular bear market. But a price loss of 25% is a large adjustment, worthy of at least a cyclical bottom.
Be prepared for a classic opportunity on the long side, should the stars align.
© Mark-Ungewitter-Research
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