The seeming impossible happened as Donald Trump was elected President upsetting the consensus frontrunner Hillary Clinton.
So what now? In the near term, much like the aftermath of the “Brexit” vote, we anticipate significant volatility in equity markets both here and around the world, volatility which is likely to last until Mr. Trump’s policy priorities become clearer. Importantly, we do not believe markets or the economies will fall apart, but the political and economic realities moving forward will be substantially different than had Mrs. Clinton prevailed.
How different? We would anticipate that many of the executive orders of President Obama’s initiating regulations and other rules will be cancelled. With a Republican controlled House and Senate it is conceivable we will see serious corporate tax reform (lower rates), the repeal and replacement of Obamacare, adjustments to major financial legislation such as Dodd-Frank and an easing of regulatory rulings from the SEC, FTC and FCC, among other agencies.
Additionally, President Obama’s hope to appoint another Supreme Court Justice has been extinguished as the Republican Senate will await Mr. Trump’s choice.
From an economic standpoint, we believe tax and regulatory reform, coupled with infrastructure spending will be quite stimulative to the economy. Mr. Trump’s immigration and trade policies, on the other hand, could be a drag depending on what he proposes and how quickly changes are implemented.
We remain positive over the long term. Regardless of the political party in power, markets will respond positively to a growing economy and the attendant rise in corporate profitability. Risk and reward are always tied together and Mr. Trump’s presidency is no different. The perception remains that his agenda and temperament brings more risk than the Clinton Presidency but it also brings more opportunity for constructive change and economic growth.
As his policies become more clear, and more importantly his ability to execute those policies becomes more clear, we will adjust our thinking and our allocations appropriately. The greatest danger is to react too quickly to this unprecedented election.
As always, we encourage you to give us a call if you would like to discuss anything further. We will visit again soon. Proudly and successfully serving our clients for 30 years.
RAY, ERIC, KIM, BRUCE, NANCY, JON, TINA, EVELYN, STEVE, DOROTHY, PAUL, SHANE and ALISON
©11/09/16 ProVise Management Group, LLC
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