With five weeks to go, we believe that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. Clinton will carry the Democrats to a Senate majority, but her administration will face a Republican House. We base this call on a number of factors, outlined in more detail in our white paper, Sizing Up the 2016 General Election:
- Based on states’ historical voting, Clinton needs many fewer electoral votes to get to the 270 necessary to win the presidency. In our view, Trump’s path to victory in the Electoral College requires him to win the four major toss-up states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. We do not believe he can accomplish that.
- To offset the growth in minority voters, who overwhelmingly support Clinton, Trump needs to win almost two-thirds of the white vote. Although Trump is demonstrably leading among white males, he is unlikely to garner sufficient white female votes to get to that threshold.
- Although Clinton is one of the most disliked candidates in modern presidential politics, polls almost uniformly show that voters view Trump even more unfavorably.
- Until now, we’ve given Trump a small “puncher’s chance” of winning based on how he handled his primary opponents in the debates. Facing a favored opponent, he could have pulled off a similar unlikely win by getting through Clinton’s defenses and rattling her. But Trump has been unable to throw Clinton meaningfully off her game, and we do not see sufficient prospect of that happening in the coming weeks to allow Trump to pull off an upset.
Before the new administration takes office, we will be preparing a white paper discussing the likely policies and legislation it will pursue, the likelihood of enactment, and how those policies will affect the economy, the market, and investors.
Andrew H. Friedman is the principal of The Washington Update LLC and a former senior partner in a Washington, D.C. law firm. He and his colleague Jeff Bush speak regularly on legislative and regulatory developments and trends affecting investment, insurance, and retirement products. They may be reached at www.TheWashingtonUpdate.com.
The authors of this paper are not providing legal or tax advice as to the matters discussed herein. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended as legal or tax advice and individuals may not rely upon it (including for purposes of avoiding tax penalties imposed by the IRS or state and local tax authorities). Individuals should consult their own legal and tax counsel as to matters discussed herein and before entering into any estate planning, trust, investment, retirement, or insurance arrangement.
Copyright Andrew H. Friedman 2016. Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
