Charts That Matter – August 2016

I have been getting a lot of queries from anxious investors on helicopter money and understandably so. Does it entail that governments and central banks will literally throw bundles of cash from helicopters into the hands of public? Well not exactly. So I decided to start this edition with a chart to de-mystify some questions on helicopter money. I have, in the past, included charts on how outward remittances under Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) enhanced Liberalised Remittances Scheme (LRS) have seen a massive increase and how the spike in Currency in Circulation (CIC) is baffling investors and economists alike. This time I have included a very interesting chart which shows the strong correlation between the spike in remittances outwards and CIC. Causality or mere correlation? I don’t really know. There is a chart on the divergence between Indian banking credit to retail and corporate sector. This divergence is a mirror image of the current recovery which is largely consumption-driven while industry (investment) demand remains weak. There is this one chart on how under-penetrated India is when it comes to health insurance even when compared to its EM peers. A huge opportunity for health insurers. A very interesting chart on how the current rally in the S&P is driven largely by Equity Risk Premium compression than earnings growth or multiple expansion. Markets are putting too much faith on the ability of central banks to drive up markets even as earning quality deteriorates (-9% earnings growth in this 2012-2016 rally). It’s a strange world we are living in.

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