The unanimity of result in the “Acela” state primaries brings the presidential nominations into greater focus.
Democrats: What we predicted over a year ago is now inevitable. Barring a supervening event, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. What do we mean by a supervening event? An FBI recommendation of indictment against Clinton in connection with her private email server or her foundation qualifies. At this stage, we do not believe an indictment will be forthcoming, allowing Clinton’s nomination to go forward.
Republicans: On Tuesday, Ted Cruz was mathematically eliminated from winning a majority of delegates and thus the nomination outright. (So, of course, on WednesdayCruz announced his vice president.) Donald Trump now needs around 55% of votes cast in the remaining primaries to become the nominee on the convention's first ballot.
We continue to believe a contested (brokered) convention is as likely as that result. Only in the first round are delegates required to vote as their states voted in the primaries. If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, then by the second (or at least the third) ballot states free their delegates to vote as they wish.
After the first round of voting, delegates may choose a nominee who is not one of the candidates running (Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have been mentioned as possibilities). Nonetheless, we believe only Trump or Cruz will emerge as the nominee. If Trump falls short of 50% but nonetheless enters the convention with a commanding lead over Cruz – including victories in Indiana and California – then we predict he will be the nominee. On the other hand, if Cruz enters the convention with momentum and is closing the gap – winning Indiana and California – he could well be the nominee. Regardless, it will come down to that choice.
Andrew H. Friedman is the principal of The Washington Update LLC and a former senior partner in a Washington, D.C. law firm. He and his colleague Jeff Bush speak regularly on legislative and regulatory developments and trends affecting investment, insurance, and retirement products. They may be reached at www.TheWashingtonUpdate.com.
The authors of this paper are not providing legal or tax advice as to the matters discussed herein. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended as legal or tax advice and individuals may not rely upon it (including for purposes of avoiding tax penalties imposed by the IRS or state and local tax authorities). Individuals should consult their own legal and tax counsel as to matters discussed herein and before entering into any estate planning, trust, investment, retirement, or insurance arrangement.
Copyright Andrew H. Friedman 2016. Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
