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Like other pundits, we thought Donald Trump could not win the Republican nomination for president. But we also have said for many months that, if Trump is still going strong on March 1 (Super Tuesday), then the calculus will be much different. We are now at that juncture, and it indeed appears it will be difficult to derail Trump’s quest. To predict how Trump is likely to fare in the general election (assuming he does in fact win the nomination), it is important first to understand the source of his appeal. The bulk of Trump’s supporters are white men (and some white women) who feel abandoned by the economic recovery and the political establishment. They feel under siege, both economically and culturally. Trump’s incendiary language and nationalistic campaign speak to these disgruntled voters. His supporters believe they finally have found someone tough enough to push back against the forces that have hurt them. They love Trump’s confidence and his simple, institutive answers to issues -- answers that contrast favorably with the nuanced positions that make other candidates appear wishy washy and incapable of action. They love that Trump refuses to apologize for statements others find offensive -- his supporters disdain political correctness as pandering to the very people who threaten their way of life. Trump’s supporters further believe conventional politicians have done nothing to reverse their plight. Democrats have fostered programs that help the very people who imperil them. Despite repeated campaign promises, Republicans have done nothing to thwart the Democrats’ objectives; instead they have, in the words of supporters, let the Obama administration run roughshod over them. This reaction explains why Trump continues to thrive in the face of withering attacks. When challenged that his ideas are unconstitutional, illegal, or prohibitively expensive, Trump simply pivots to a personal attack on the objector – usually a conventional politician or a member of the media. Because the criticisms come from people Trump’s supporters don’t like or trust, the barbs only confirm supporters’ views that Trump is the only one with the ideas and the guts to take on the political establishment. Thus, in a perverse manner, criticism lends credence to Trump’s positions and his popularity grows. Unless these opponents find a criticism that sticks, it will be difficult to stop Trump before the convention. Trump’s candidacy is likely to energize a large portion of Republican voters in the general election. Uncertain is the extent to which his candidacy also energizes the forces against him, and, more broadly, whether his rhetoric can capture a large portion of the 42% of voters who are Independents. If Trump in fact locks up the nomination, we will consider Trump’s prospects in the general election in an upcoming paper. Andrew H. Friedman is the principal of The Washington Update LLC and a former senior partner in a Washington, D.C. law firm. He and his colleague Jeff Bush speak regularly on legislative and regulatory developments and trends affecting investment, insurance, and retirement products. They may be reached at www.TheWashingtonUpdate.com. The authors of this paper are not providing legal or tax advice as to the matters discussed herein. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. It is not intended as legal or tax advice and individuals may not rely upon it (including for purposes of avoiding tax penalties imposed by the IRS or state and local tax authorities). Individuals should consult their own legal and tax counsel as to matters discussed herein and before entering into any estate planning, trust, investment, retirement, or insurance arrangement. Copyright Andrew H. Friedman 2016. Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved. |
