Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since October, but the decline has pushed prices down to a level that has, in every past instance, come before a rebound rather than a deeper slide.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin fell to its 200-week price average for only the sixth time on record in June 2026.
- Every prior instance since 2015 was followed by higher bitcoin prices within a year.
- The CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR ) offers regulated exposure to bitcoin’s price moves.
That level is bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a long-run price trend that tracks roughly four years of trading. The measure has served as a rough floor during past bitcoin downturns, according to CoinShares reporting, historically preceding recoveries once prices dipped to or below it.
Bitcoin just touched this level for only the sixth time in its history. In each of the five completed touches since 2015, bitcoin traded higher a year later. Gains ranged from 13.2% to more than 1,080%, according to CoinShares.
Bitcoin closed at $61,037.18 on June 5, about 0.93% below its 200-week average of $61,608.95, according to Glassnode data cited by CoinShares. The dip followed a slide of more than 50% from bitcoin’s October 2025 high above $150,000.
Long-term holders have seen drops like this before. Bitcoin has logged 10 drawdowns of 50% or more in its 18-year history, according to CoinShares. Many investors have treated those stretches as buying windows rather than reasons to sell. To them, the swings reflect a young asset still settling into a stable price.
How Bitcoin Performed After Similar Drops
Bitcoin has fallen to this level five times before, and each episode carried its own backdrop. The report looks closely at three of them. Bitcoin first fell to its 200-week average in January 2015, closing at $172.21. It climbed 149.7% over the following year and 4,631.6% over five years, according to CoinShares.
The March 2020 drop, arriving during the pandemic’s opening liquidity shock, preceded a 1,080.4% one-year gain. The June 2022 drop, which came as crypto lenders collapsed, brought smaller but still positive returns of 13.2% over one year, according to CoinShares.
CoinShares cautions that five completed episodes across 11 years is a small sample, and each one unfolded under different economic conditions. Still, the direction has repeated every time: bitcoin has been worth more a year after each prior drop to this level than it was on the day it happened.
For investors looking to act on that pattern without holding bitcoin directly, the CoinShares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR ) offers exposure through a regulated fund. The ETF tracks bitcoin’s price while removing the need to manage private keys or exchange accounts. That gives advisors a way to adjust exposure during pullbacks like this one.
Whether this pattern repeats remains uncertain. But after the first recorded instance in January 2015, a $1,000 investment in bitcoin grew to more than $47,000 within five years, according to CoinShares.
For more news, information, and strategy, visit the CoinShares Crypto ETF Hub.
