Will Strong Consumer Spending Sidestep a Recession?

Michael LebowitzAdvisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.

The economy has marched forward, ignoring higher interest rates and consistent calls for a recession. Credit goes to "we the people," the citizens of the U.S. A shout out also goes to Uncle Sam for showering us with trillions of dollars of stimulus during the pandemic to fuel consumption.

Understanding why the economy has done so well is easy. Massive stimulus drove consumption. The difficult task is forecasting how the remnants of stimulus and other forms of financial relief will continue to fortify personal consumption and boost economic activity.

Personal consumption growth rates are showing signs of fatigue. Given it consistently accounts for more than two thirds of economic activity, it's worth exploring the state of the consumer to appreciate better what the economy has in store.

personal consumption