Funding Retirement in Post-4% Rule World

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William Bengen's widely cited research found that retirees could expect to withdraw 4%, after adjusting for inflation, from an asset annually. He arrived at this safe spending rate by building a hypothetical 50/50 portfolio (source: Vanguard) and testing it using every 30-year period from the seven decades prior to 1994. Bengen showed how an income stream could be safely sustained for 30-plus years (the assumed length of retirement plus some).

Since 1994, when Bengen published his research, we've detonated the dot bomb of the early part of this century, popped the housing bubble of '08 and now are riding a market to ever higher historical highs like a drunken cowboy trying not to chuck his beer as he dips, bucks and spins on the robot bull. Underpinning this euphoric 10-year bull ride is a Fed-driven regime that has artificially suppressed interest rates. We're in uncharted waters.

Client expectations versus the 4% rule

A recent survey from the American College of Financial Services found seven of 10 respondents of retirement age were unaware of the 4% safe-withdrawal rate. Approximately 16% of respondents pegged that number between 6% and 8%. Imagine telling a client that the $40,000 in retirement income they planned to spend annually would be more like $20,000. Or $10,000.

Given these meager assumptions, it's time to think differently about building sustainable retirement income streams. Since many retirees fund their retirement using a traditional IRA, it makes sense to use a portion of that asset to fund a variable annuity with a guaranteed living withdrawal benefit (GLWB) that ensures an income stream of at least 5% or 6% of the invested principal. With an IRA, retirees are already paying ordinary income taxes on the withdrawals. Tax treatment would remain the same.