The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® fell to its lowest level since July 2022. The index retreated to 97.0 this month from March's downwardly revised 103.1. This month's reading was lower than expected, falling short of the 104.0 forecast.
The Present Situation Index, which is based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, declined to 142.9 in April from 146.8 in March. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 66.4 in April from 74.0 in March. Note that a level of 80 or below for the Expectations Index historically signals a recession within the next year.
“Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future."
“In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.”
Peterson added: “According to April’s write-in responses, elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumer’s concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up. Average 12-month inflation expectations remained stable at 5.3 percent despite concerns about food and energy prices. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months rose slightly in April but is still well below the May 2023 peak.”
Background on the Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures the consumers attitudes and confidence in the economy, business conditions, and labor market, with higher readings indicating higher optimism. The general assumption is that when consumers are more optimistic they will spend more and stimulate economic growth. However, if consumers are pessimistic then spending will decline and the economy may slow down. The index is based on a 5 question survey, with 2 questions related to present conditions and 3 questions related to future expectations. The survey began in 1967 and was conducted every two months but changed to monthly reporting in 1977, which is where our data begins.
