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Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: "Fell Slightly in July"

July 21, 2016

by Doug Short

The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to direction of the broader Chicago Fed's National Activity Index.

The latest Manufacturing Index came in at -2.9, down from last month's 4.7. The 3-month moving average came in at 0.0, up down from 0.4 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 33.7, an increase over the previous month's 29.8.

Today's -2.9 came in below the 5.0 forecast at Investing.com.

Here is the introduction from the survey released today:

Manufacturing activity in the region fell slightly in July, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the indicator for current general activity turned negative, indicators for new orders and shipments were positive. Employment was flat at the reporting firms this month. Firms reported higher prices paid for materials and other inputs in July, but prices received for manufactured goods were relatively steady. The survey’s index of future activity improved slightly, and firms expect growth in new orders and shipments over the next six months. (Full Report)

The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, and the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011 and 2012, and a shallower contraction in 2013. Last year saw a contraction with an improvement in 2016.

In the next chart we see the complete series, which dates from May 1960. For proof of the high volatility of the headline indicator, note that the average absolute monthly change across this data series is 7.7.

The next chart is an overlay of the General Activity Index and the Future General Activity Index — the outlook six months ahead.

For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.

Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators.Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).

Here is the same chart including the average of the five. Readers will notice the range in expansion and contraction between all regions.

Here are the remaining four monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS)

Kansas City Manufacturing Survey

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Fifth District Manufacturing Survey (Richmond)

Regional Fed Overview