Most Recent Articles

Michael Lewis on the True Depth of the Crisis in Europe by Larry Siegel

Michael Lewis is a financial writer and author, most recently of Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World, in which he reported on the European debt crisis from several of the affected countries. In this interview, he discusses a range of topics, including the future of Wall Street and the challenges of great financial writing.

Most Recent Commentaries

Heart of China Bull Beats Strong by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors

With rising incomes and increasing urbanization, we believe China is pursuing the American Dream, and the government has shown great determination to build the necessary infrastructure along with a robust urban labor market. On a purchasing power parity basis, Chinas share of world GDP has risen significantly, from around 3 percent in 1985 to a current world share of nearly 16 percent.

Slow Road to 'Normal?' by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen and Michelle Gibley of Charles Schwab

Market volatility has fallen and tight correlations have loosened, indicating to us some calming of fears and increased attention on more traditional economic and earnings-related news. This is a good sign for stocks in the foreseeable future. The Fed unveiled its new communication strategy after its most recent meeting, reiterating that interest rates will likely remain extremely low for some time. The European picture is brightening slightly and there may be a glimmer of hope for stock market investors. After a soft patch, global growth may be turning around.

Beware of Strategists Bearing Gifts by Jamie Cornehlsen of Dunn Warren Investment Advisors

This time of year Investment Strategists are rampant with projections for the year ahead return. Typically the strategists process is to estimate earnings a year in advance and then apply a multiple on those earnings. Whether an optimistic bias or an eagerness to have investors buy into the market, the strategists assume a continuation of the trend. Vitaliy Katsenelson has provided research that earnings seldom follow a steady course. Rather earnings fall victim to regression to the mean because as a good thing becomes known, competition erodes profit margins over time.

Eager to Move Home by Sherwood Zhang of Matthews Asia

Going public has long been viewed as a great milestone for entrepreneurs as the status of a public listing offers firms not only better access to capital, but also creditability. However, an increasing number of Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges have recently given up this privilege and been taken private again. Whether these firms are delisting from U.S. exchanges via their own management teams, strategic buyers or private equity investors, the value of these firms reportedly surpassed the total capital raised by Chinese firms in the U.S. from initial public offerings in 2011.

A Crisis in Two Narratives by Raghuram Rajan of Project Syndicate

With the worlds industrial democracies in crisis, two competing narratives of its sources and appropriate remedies are emerging. For better or worse, the narrative that persuades these countries governments and publics will determine their future and that of the global economy.

CRI Recession Call: Growth Index Contraction Eases Further by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives (dshort.com)

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -6.5 in its latest reading, data through January 20. The latest public data point is a reduced contraction from last week's -7.6 (a slight downward revision from -7.5). This is the highest level (i.e., least negative) since early September. However, the underlying WLI declined fractionally from an adjusted 123.3 to 122.8 (see the third chart below).

Dissecting Todays Bull Market by Russ Koesterich of iShares Blog

So whats a tactical investing idea for the current cyclical bull market? Well, lets look at the investment implications of the Feds announcement this week. First, it suggests that nominal rates and real rates will stay low for a long time. This further buttresses the case for gold. Second, if US interest rates are going to be anchored at zero for an extended period, people are going to need to take some risk in one form or another to generate a decent return.

What the Bond Market Knows That You Dont by Matt Tucker of iShares Blog

On the back of improving US economic data, equities have rallied off of autumn lows, and yet US Treasury yields have continued to surf bottom with the 10-year note trading below 2% for the first time on record. Why havent interest rates recovered in support of improving data? Do US Treasury investors know something that equity investors dont? The answer may lie across the pond in Europe. The European crisis intensified significantly in the fall, causing equity markets (and most risky assets for that matter) to sell off and US Treasury rates to fall, despite the August downgrade.

Reviewing (and Renewing) Our Case for Munis and Core Muni Funds by American Century Investments

Positive municipal bond (muni) performance in 2011 was a surprise to many after the angst at the end of 2010. While a relative performance encore of last year's magnitude might be difficult to muster, we believe muni market fundamentals remain resilient, which is the cornerstone of our case for munis and muni funds in 2012 and beyond.

Beyond Reinhart and Rogoff by Robert Huebscher

My article two weeks ago, The Misreading of Reinhart and Rogoff, elicited a number of challenges, both from those who argued that excessive debt imperils our economic growth and from those who claimed that my proposed solution was unworkable. Among those challengers was Lacy Hunt, who raised several valid concerns. I will explain why I disagree with Hunt and others, and why the dollar's position as the reserve currency increases our borrowing capacity. But our ability to borrow cannot be a license to spend unwisely, and I will conclude by expanding on the policy choices the US must pursue.

A Five-Minute Strategy to Achieve Key Goals by Dan Richards

New research yields important insights on achieving change - whether it be losing weight or advancing your business. One surprise: A five-minute exercise dramatically raises the chances of hitting your goals.

There's No Such Thing As Free Yield by Steve Laipply

In this low rate environment, investors are searching for fixed income products to add to their portfolios that can generate higher yield. But in this video Steve Laipply, a member of BlackRock's Model-Based Fixed Income Portfolio Management Group, cautions that there's no such thing as free yield. Often, products that generate higher returns also involve greater risks.

The ETF Landscape: A Look Back at 2011's ETF Flows by Jennifer Grancio

In 2011, $150 billion flowed into exchange traded products globally, with one of every three new dollars being allocated to fixed income funds. In this video, Jennifer Grancio, head of Global Business Development for iShares, explains the factors that drove this trend and how investors are using ETPs to actively manage their fixed income portfolios.

Dale Mortensen on Addressing Unemployment by Dan Richards

Dale Mortensen is an economist, a professor at Northwestern University and a co-winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics. In this interview, he discusses the unemployment situation in the US. This is the transcript.

Must Bond Investors Fear Rising Interest Rates? by Andrew D. Martin

Thirty-one years ago, in 1981, the one-year Treasury reached its all time high of 14%. Today it hovers around 0.10%. Never before have interest rates fallen so far. Many economists and investment advisors, seeing nowhere to go but up, expect interest rates to climb from these historic lows. But that would not be the catastrophe that many bond investors fear.