Commentaries

Timely market commentaries from leading investment firms

UPDATE: 5-Year Capital Market Assumptions

Maintaining long-term forecasts for major asset classes provides helpful context for responding to short-term swings in markets.

Alpha and Beta: Getting the Balance Right with Alternatives

Gaining more in up markets than you lose in down markets is at the heart of success in alternative investments. It’s not magic—the secret is an effective blend of market and nonmarket returns.

Sales Estimates Aren’t Suggesting an Acceleration in US Growth

Sales estimates have been relatively flat so far in 2016. At the beginning of the year, the median sales estimate for the next 12 months for US companies was 4.6%. Estimates fell as the market fell in February and eventually bottomed at 3.28%.

Rising Leverage in Emerging Asia: Where Is It Headed?

Japan offers lessons for investors worried about rapidly rising debt levels in emerging Asia, especially China.

Who's Confused, the Fed or the Markets?

The Federal Reserve provides a lot more information than it used to. The central bank issues policy statements, it makes public its economic projections and policy expectations, and the Fed chair holds regular press conferences to explain things.

Every Picture Tells a Story: Recession Risk Up, but Not High

I keep a close eye on every variety of leading economic indicators—of which the stock market is one. Last week’s release of the most-widely followed set of leading indicators—the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (CB’s LEI)—showed an unexpected decline of 0.2%.

Are Emerging Markets Just Getting Started?

A look at what we believe skeptics are missing when it comes to emerging markets.

DOL Conflict of Interest Rule Could Force Staff Changes

More than half of broker/dealers surveyed by the LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute believe some of their advisers will retire rather than sell under the new.

Goodbye, Dilma. Hello, Michel.

On August 31, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was impeached on charges of breaking budgetary laws, ending nine months of political infighting. The Brazilian Senate voted 61-20 to permanently remove her.

Desperate Central Bankers

The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks – the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed did nothing, which is precisely the problem, while the alchemists at the BOJ unveiled yet another feeble unconventional policy gambit.