ISM Non-Manufacturing: 66th Consecutive Month of Growth
August 5, 2015
by Jill Mislinski
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its latest Non-Manufacturing Report. The headline NMI Composite Index is at 60.3 percent, up 4.3 percent from last month's 56 percent. Today's number came in above the Investing.com forecast of 56.2 percent.
Here is the report summary:
"The NMI® registered 60.3 percent in July, 4.3 percentage points higher than the June reading of 56 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 64.9 percent, which is 3.4 percentage points higher than the June reading of 61.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 72nd consecutive month at a faster rate. The New Orders Index registered 63.8 percent, 5.5 percentage points higher than the reading of 58.3 percent registered in June. The Employment Index increased 6.9 percentage points to 59.6 percent from the June reading of 52.7 percent and indicates growth for the 17th consecutive month. The Prices Index increased 0.7 percentage point from the June reading of 53 percent to 53.7 percent, indicating prices increased in July for the fifth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 15 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. The majority of the respondents continue to have a positive outlook on business conditions and the overall economy. This is reflected directly by a number of new highs for some of the indexes."
Unlike its much older kin, the ISM Manufacturing Series, there is relatively little history for ISM's Non-Manufacturing data, especially for the headline Composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows Non-Manufacturing Composite. We have only a single recession to gauge is behavior as a business cycle indicator.
The more interesting and useful subcomponent is the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index. The latest data point at 64.9 percent is up from 61.5 the previous month.
For a diffusion index, this can be an extremely volatile indicator, hence the addition of a six-month moving average to help us visualizing the short-term trends.
Theoretically, this indicator should become more useful as the timeframe of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than Non-Manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains our intention to keep this series on the radar.
Here is a table showing trend in the underlying components.
Note: We use the FRED USRECP series (Peak through the Period preceding the Trough) to highlight the recessions in the charts above. For example, the NBER dates the last cycle peak as December 2007, the trough as June 2009 and the duration as 18 months. The USRECP series thus flags December 2007 as the start of the recession and May 2009 as the last month of the recession, giving us the 18-month duration. The dot for the last recession in the charts above are thus for November 2007. The "Peak through the Period preceding the Trough" series is the one FRED uses in its monthly charts, as illustrated here.