Q3 GDP Third Estimate at 5.0% Exceeds Expectations

December 23, 2014

by Doug Short

The Third Estimate for Q3 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 5.0 percent, an increase from the Second Estimate of 3.9 percent. Today's number beat mainstream economists' estimates, which were for a fractional decrease. For example, Investing.com had a forecast of 4.3 percent.

Here is an excerpt from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.6 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.9 percent. With the third estimate for the third quarter, both personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment increased more than previously estimated (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in the percent change in real GDP reflected a downturn in imports, an upturn in federal government spending, and an acceleration in PCE that were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and decelerations in exports, in state and local government spending, in residential fixed investment, and in nonresidential fixed investment. [Full Release]

Here is a look at GDP since Q2 1947 together with the real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite. The start date is when the BEA began reporting GDP on a quarterly basis. Prior to 1947, GDP was reported annually. To be more precise, what the lower half of the chart shows is the percent change from the preceding period in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. I've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

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Here is a close-up of GDP alone with a line to illustrate the 3.3 average (arithmetic mean) for the quarterly series since the 1947. I've also plotted the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.6 percent.

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Here is the same chart with a linear regression that illustrates the gradual decline in GDP over this timeframe.

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A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change.

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And for a bit of political trivia, here is a look at GDP by party in control of the White House and Congress.

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In summary, the Q3 GDP Third Estimate of 5.0 percent beat the forecast of mainstream economists.

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