October Durable Goods Orders Surge
The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau's summary on new orders:
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $11.0 billion or 4.8 percent to $239.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four consecutive months, followed a 0.4 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 5.2 percent.
Transportation equipment, also up four consecutive months, led the increase, $9.5 billion or 12.0 percent to $88.2 billion. Download full PDF
The latest new orders number at 4.8% (4.81% to two decimal places) month-over-month (MoM) was substantially above the Investing.com consensus of 1.5%. The series is up 2.1% year-over-year (YoY).
If we exclude transportation, "core" durable goods came in at 1.0% MoM, which beat the Investing.com consensus of 0.2%. The core measure is only up a fractional 0.3% YoY.
If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental "core", the latest number is up 1.3% MoM but only up 1.0% YoY.
Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It rose 0.4% MoM but is down 4.0% YoY.
For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We've also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.
The next chart shows year-over-year percent change in Durable Goods. We've highlighted the value at recession starts and the latest value for this metric.