Equity markets have shown resilience amid persistent headwinds, supported by index evolution and earnings strength

From severe wildfires in northern Ontario to record heat across Europe, extreme weather is back in the headlines. Such events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the risks associated with them are testing the limits of insurability. With our research partners at Columbia Climate School, we examine how strains on the insurance system can transmit climate-related risks through the capital markets.

Inflation remains above target, especially the Federal Reserve’s preferred core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation measure, as choppy data have challenged the view that disinflation will proceed smoothly.

The prime culprit was renewed questioning of the artificial intelligence (AI) buildout given the increasing amount of capital investment needed to bring it to life and the corresponding costs for those who use the technology weighed against its potential productivity benefits.

Lock, stock and barrel, a British phrase, originally referred to the three essential components of a firearm. Over time, it evolved into shorthand for the whole package. When tensions flare in the Middle East, the global economy often feels the consequences lock, stock and barrel.

LPL Research analyzes China’s declining crude imports, inflation risks, and the resilient U.S. economy driving above-trend growth.

VettaFi’s Midyear Market Outlook symposium Thursday saw industry leaders take on the big questions. Where is the market going? How should investors and advisors navigate uncertainty and potential volatility? Leaders from Fidelity Investments and Invesco both joined for one of the early segments, focused on innovative U.S. strategies.

The second-quarter earnings season kicked off last week with a resounding statement from Wall Street, led by stellar results across the nation's six largest banking institutions.

Five of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through July 20, 2026.

I’ve been writing about inflation more in recent months and quarters because inflation has become the major driver of the US macroeconomic landscape. This week, we take a deep dive into inflation and interest rates, and at the end, I talk about why I am buying gold for my grandkids.

It seems to be the end of the Great Moderation Era for the U.S. economy. The Great Moderation Era—which marked most of the two decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic—is drifting away into what we call the new Temperamental Era.

Builder confidence edged lower in July as ongoing affordability challenges continue to affect the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 2 points from June to 34 this month, marking the 27th consecutive negative reading.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index sank 5.4% in June to 72.5, the lowest level since January.

U.S. headline retail sales increased for a fifth straight month, rising 0.2% to $768.6B in June, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.2%.

Although economic conditions did not change much between the first and second quarters, investors were far more bullish in the second quarter.

LPL Research examines how sticky inflation, Fed leadership changes, and AI-driven borrowing are shaping the fixed income outlook for 2026.

It has been an eventful six months, and we are delighted that the Equity Dislocation Strategy has risen to the occasion. The Strategy generated a 9.05% net return in the first half of 2026, compared with a 1.3% return for MSCI ACWI Value minus MSCI ACWI Growth, a broad proxy for the value-growth spread.

After a wild last 12 months in a technology stock boom – and more recent volatility – the question du jour, in our view, is not whether AI is transformative.

Inflation cooled for the first time in five months, coming in at 3.5% year-over-year in June. The headline figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was lower than the 3.8% forecast.

The first wave of upgrades came after the AI hyperscalers reported, by and large, strong earnings. But most of the improvement has stemmed from the rest of the non-financials index, with analysts quadrupling their one-year aggregate EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth expectations, from 5% at the end of January to more than 20% as of 30 June.

Despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, markets continue to display remarkable resilience. Major equity averages sit within striking distance of new all-time highs while oil, perhaps the biggest surprise of the year, remains anchored in the low $70s despite renewed hostilities.

Bear flattening trades, inverted yield curves, and frantic style rotations (factor or sector) are not definitive warnings of a market peak. They are extremely informative about where the economy, markets, and investor sentiment stand, but they do not tell investors whether or when the economic or market cycle will turn.

What makes this earnings setup truly unique is the behavior of Wall Street analysts over the last 90 days. Because corporate guidance tends to be conservative, analysts historically cut estimates ahead of time.

The AI capex risk profile has gotten sharper since then, and the argument needs tightening in a few places. The bull case and the tail risk are now the same buildout, but they are running in different directions.

Markets enter the second half of 2026 facing a familiar wall of worry—geopolitical conflict, oil prices, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and questions around the durability of an AI-led equity rally. Yet the economic backdrop still looks resilient: growth remains solid, inflation has moderated, unemployment is reasonable, and market leadership appears to be broadening.

The Great Moderation has given way to a more volatile era, where inflation shocks and market dispersion favor flexibility and diversification.

Multiple jobholders accounted for 5.2% of civilian employment in June.

What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?

Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% in June as the median home price surged to a record high of $440,600.

For much of the last decade, investing felt relatively one dimensional. Falling inflation, near zero interest rates and abundant liquidity rewarded long duration growth assets, compressed dispersion and made passive exposure difficult to challenge.

The capital markets have become an increasingly complex space for investors, complexities that are heightened by the sheer number of ways one can invest.

Royce Investment Partners: In this second quarter recap, Francis Gannon discusses how US small-and micro-cap stocks have continued to lead the US equity market in a robust period for equities.

AI may reshape the labor market in ways that are difficult to predict, and it won’t be the first time this has happened. In the short term, the labor market appears to have stabilized and there are some early signs of acceleration.

After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.

Every sector chart tells you where the crowd is. Almost none tell you the thing a stock picker actually needs to know: Inside a given sector, how much room is there to beat the average name?

What is remarkable about Livermore is that his rules are still incredibly valuable. The markets he traded in no longer exist. The technology, the communication speeds, and the regulatory framework of his day are unrecognizable compared to today. But the principles and behavioral patterns he identified are as operational in 2026 as they were a hundred years ago.

The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global rose 0.5 points to 51.2, indicating a modest rise in service sector activity. The latest reading was just below the forecast of 51.3 and marked the strongest expansion in four months.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.0. This was slightly lower than the forecast of 54.2 but keeps the index in expansion territory for a 24th consecutive month.

A violent rotation in the underbelly of a bullish stock market is extending the worst run for quantitative hedge funds since 2023.

Federal estate taxes may not affect most households, but state death taxes can still be significant. Learn key planning considerations and strategies to help preserve wealth.

One should always take government data with a grain of salt. But if we aren’t going to reject it outright (if we do, we have nothing at all to go on), we should at least analyze it with a microscope. The headlines touted by your mainstream pundits almost always miss the real story.

At VettaFi, we’ve been talking a lot about bottlenecks as a concept. Some of the brightest equity market opportunities for capital growth are tied to bottlenecks in a supply chain-context.

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s passing has brought a stream of retrospectives on his approaches to managing the economy. He erred on the side of parsimony, favoring short public statements. Greenspan’s vague communication style offered little clarity over the future path of interest rates.

Travel on all roads and streets decreased in May. The 12-month moving average was down 0.06% month-over-month but was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% month-over-month and up 0.32% year-over-year.

Home prices fell for a second straight month in April according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and was up 0.8% year-over-year.

As growth stumbled, the S&P 500 Momentum Index captures a 7.5% gain in June and a 44% gain in the second quarter.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3 in June, down from 54.0 in May, marking slightly slower growth. The latest reading was just below the 53.8 forecast and is the index's sixth straight month in expansion territory.

U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.

A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.

Jesse Livermore’s prolific trading stories about the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules.