S&P 500 Snapshot: A Fractional Gain Continues the Sideways Trend
July 28, 2016
by Doug Short
Our benchmark S&P 500 continued in its range-bound sideways trend, posting a fractional gain of 0.16% that essentially split the different between the intraday high and low. The small gain extended the fractional up-down pattern of daily closes to eleven sessions. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 1.86% today and is now in bear territory, down 20.16% from its interim high 36 sessions ago on June 8th.
The yield on the 10-year remined unchanged at 1.52%.
Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.
Here is a daily chart of the index. We've highlighted the unusually narrow pattern over the past eleven sessions, both in closes and intraday trading ranges. To repeat again the pervading question: Will the next significant move be up? or down? Stay tuned!
A Perspective on Drawdowns
Here's a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.
Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.
Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
A Perspective on Volatility
For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We've also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.