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S&P 500 Snapshot: A Down Day as Jackson Hole Friday Draws Closer

August 24, 2016

by Doug Short

The S&P 500 opened lower in a continuation of the trend that started after yesterday's intraday high in the early trade. A half-hearted reversal began in the late morning but ended with the lunch hour. The afternoon selling accelerated to the -0.72% intraday low shortly before the close. A bit of last-minute buying trimmed the loss to -0.52%. Weakness in oil may have been a factor in today's market. End of day spot crude fell 2.77%. Meanwhile, as we observed yesterday, the general view among the pundits is that equity markets are awaiting the Friday flavor  of Fed Chair Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole (hawkish, dovish, or a confusing mix).

The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.56%, up one basis point from the previous close.

Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

S&P 500

Here is daily chart of the SPY ETF. Trading volume picked up a tad but remains in summer doldrums.

S&P 500

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

S&P 500 Drawdowns

Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

S&P 500 MAs

Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

S&P 500 MAs

A Perspective on Volatility

For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We've also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

S&P 500 Snapshot