S&P 500 Snapshot: A Welcome Bounce

January 29, 2015

by Doug Short

A surprisingly good report on Weekly Jobless Claims didn't halt an early dip in the S&P 500, which hit its -0.65% intraday low at mid-morning. But the trend then reversed, and the index trended higher at a fairly steady pace through the rest of the day. It closed with a 0.95% gain, a bit off its late afternoon 1.12% intraday high, but a welcome bounce after a nasty two-day selloff.

The potential market mover tomorrow will be the BEA's Advance Estimate of Q4 GDP. See my analysis of the GDP forecasts of 65 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. But also check out my commentary on the BEA's policy of reporting real quarterly GDP as a Compounded Annual Percent Change.

The yield on the 10-year Note closed at 1.77%, up 4 bps from yesterday's close.

Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF, which gives a better sense of investor participation. Volume was above its 50-day moving average but lower than during yesterday's selloff.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough. The S&P 500 is 3.32% off its record close on December 29th.

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For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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