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Anticipating the July Employment Data: 179K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

August 3, 2016

by Doug Short

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the July estimate of 179K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, an increase from June's 176K, which was a 4K upward revision from 172K, and May was revised upward by 13K.

The 179K estimate came in above the Investing.com forecast of 170K for the ADP number.

The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 180K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:

“This month’s employment number falls short of the 12-month average primarily because of slowing in small business hiring,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the labor market continues to tighten, small businesses may increasingly face challenges when it comes to offering wages that can compete with larger businesses.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth remains strong, but is moderating as the economy approaches full employment. Businesses are having a more difficult time filling open job positions, which are near record highs. The nation’s biggest economic problem will soon be the lack of available workers.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.


Here's our complete list of monthly employment updates:

Employment Situation Report

Unemployment Claims

Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Conditions Index

Long-Term Trends by Age Group

Aging Work Force

Ratio of Part Time and Full Time Employment

Multiple Jobholders

Workforce Recovery Since Recession