Home Prices Rose 5.1% Year-over-Year, Gains Continue in September

With today's release of the September S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.4% month over month. The seasonally adjusted year-over-year change has hovered between 4.4% and 5.4% for the last twelve months. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) reached a new high.

The adjacent column chart illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was up 0.2% from the previous month. The nonseasonally adjusted index was up 5.1% year-over-year.

Investing.com had forecast a 0.4% MoM seasonally adjusted increase and 5.2% YoY nonseasonally adjusted for the 20-city series.

Here is an excerpt of the analysis from today's Standard & Poor's press release.

“The new peak set by the S&P Case-Shiller CoreLogic National Index will be seen as marking a shift from the housing recovery to the hoped-for start of a new advance” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While seven of the 20 cities previously reached new post-recession peaks, those that experienced the biggest booms -- Miami, Tampa, Phoenix and Las Vegas -- remain well below their all-time highs. Other housing indicators are also giving positive signals: sales of existing and new homes are rising and housin g starts at an annual rate of 1.3 million units are at a post-recession peak." [Link to source]

The chart below is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-City Composite was tracked. Note that the 20-City, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. We've used the seasonally adjusted data for this illustration.

Home Price Index