Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Increased Slightly in October

"Index shows economic growth increased slightly in October." This is the headline for today's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here are the opening paragraphs from the report:

All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from September, but all four categories again made nonpositive contributions to the index in October.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.27 in October from –0.20 in September. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.35 in October from –0.16 in September. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in October, while 51 made negative contributions. Fifty indicators improved from September to October, while thirty-four indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 21 made negative contributions. [Link to News Release]

The previous month's CFNAI was revised downward from -0.14 to -0.23.

Background on the CFNAI

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.

The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.

CFNAI since 2000

For a broad historical context, here is the complete CFNAI historical series dating from March 1967.

CFNAI

The next chart highlights the -0.7 level. The Chicago Fed explains:

When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended.