Retail Sales Continue to Surge
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for October released this morning showed continued growth improvement over the substantial September increase. Headline sales came in at 0.8% month-over-month to one decimal, and September number was revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0%. Today's headline number beat the Investing.com consensus of 0.6%. Core sales (ex Autos) came in at 0.8% MoM, which beat the Investing.com consensus of 0.5%, and the September Core was revised upward from 0.5% to 0.7%.
Here is the introduction from today's report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $465.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.3 percent (±0.9%) above October 2015. Total sales for the August 2016 through October 2016 period were up 3.3 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The August 2016 to September 2016 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5%) to up 1.0 percent (±0.1%).
Retail trade sales were up 1.0 percent (±0.5%) from September 2016, and up 4.3 percent (±0.7%) from last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.9 percent (±1.6%) from October 2015, while Miscellaneous stores retailers were up 9.5 percent (±4.2%) from last year. [view full report]
The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator.
The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend. Here is the headline series.
Here is the year-over-year version of Core Retail Sales.