Anticipating the September Employment Data: 154K New Nonfarm Private Jobs

The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the September estimate of 154K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decline from August's 175K, which was a small downward revision of 2K. July was revised downward by 1K.

The 154K estimate came in below the consensus of 166 for the ADP number.

The forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 175K nonfarm new jobs (the actual PAYEMS number).

Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report:

“Job gains in September eased a bit when compared to the past 12-month average,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “We also observed softening this month in trade/transportation/utilities, possibly due to a continued tightening U.S. labor market and lackluster consumer spending.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The current record of consecutive monthly job gains continued in September. With job openings at all-time highs and layoffs near all-time lows, the job market remains in full-swing. Job growth has moderated in recent months, but only because the economy is finally returning to full-employment.”

Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

The key difference between the two series is that the BLS series is for Nonfarm Payrolls while ADP tracks private employment.

Here's our list of monthly employment updates:

Employment Situation Report

Unemployment Claims

Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims, and the Business Cycle

Labor Market Conditions Index

Long-Term Trends by Age Group

Aging Work Force

Ratio of Part Time and Full Time Employment

Multiple Jobholders

Workforce Recovery Since Recession