We've updated this series to include this morning's release of the Consumer Price Index as the deflator and the September monthly update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $38,435, down 12.4% from 45-plus years ago.
There is a big economic calendar featuring the most important monthly reports – employment, ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and auto sales. In normal times we would be analyzing the data and the implications for corporate earnings and interest rates.
In order to gauge the trajectory of this economy, it’s important to examine the data behind our recent growth and the price we're paying for it. It’s also important to look at whether growth will last into the third quarter of 2018 and examine the one significant factor that underlies real growth: wage revitalization.
If you listen to the media, you probably think the “middle class” is declining rapidly, not just here but around the world. It’s true, the middle class is declining in America, but not for the reasons the media would have us believe. It’s actually a good thing, and I’ll explain why as we go along today.
Once upon a time, there was a land of great promise. This promised land rewards hard work and enterprise with gold while penalizes the weak with taxes and cost of living. This promised land is the United State of America. And true to its founding principles, it has bestowed the highest office of the land to the shrewdest business man of its time, President Donald J Trump.
Read Harold Evensky's latest Newsletter.
Among the populist ideas that have gained currency are hostility to free trade, a sharp reduction in immigration, the redistribution of income, and nationalism bordering on jingoism. Dambisa Moyo doesn’t like it, and neither does Ian Bremmer.
Earlier this year when President Trump began beating the drums loudly, causing fear of a trade war (and assuring us that such a conflict could be easily won), I cautioned that he had no idea the trouble he was courting . Based on his spectacular misunderstanding of the power dynamic built in to international trade, he was also in danger of bringing a knife to a gunfight.
In this issue, the Northern Trust economics team explores the challenges facing Ireland in Brexit, the continuing demand for eurozone debt, and wage growth within U.S. states.
Monday’s monster stock selloff is exhibit A for why I frequently recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in bullion and jewelry, the other 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.