This morning's seasonally adjusted 212K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was below the Investing.com forecast of 215K
In this morning's ADP employment report we got the July estimate of 219K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over June's 213K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that's worth exploring in more detail.
The July US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 55.3, down from the 55.4 final June figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.
Today the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for July. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 58.1 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percent from 60.2 the previous month. Today's headline number was below the Investing.com forecast of 59.4 percent.
Today we have the ADP July estimate of 219K new nonfarm private employment jobs, an increase over the ADP June figure of 213K.
The BEA's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain-type Price Index for June, released this morning, shows that core inflation remains below the Federal Reserve's 2% long-term target at 1.90%. The most recent Core Consumer Price Index release, also data through June, is higher at 2.26%. The Fed is on record as using Core PCE data as its primary inflation gauge.
Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in June rose 0.44% and is up 5.0% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was at 0.34%. The real number is up 2.7% year-over-year. Extensive revisions and updates were made.
To achieve long-term prosperity, rational immigration policy must become a priority.
With the release of this morning's report on June Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.36% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.26% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 4.63% nominal and 2.35% real.
The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through July 19. The headline number of 127.4 was an increase from the final reading of 127.1 for June, an upward revision from 126.4. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 126.5.