The economic calendar is modest. Volatility is lower even with plenty of news. The summer doldrums have arrived! It provides time for introspection to fill those empty timeslots and pages.
The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.
What happened at the Fed and the ECB meetings? The economics team explains.
The S&P 500 spent the majority of the week seesawing until Friday when it opened lower than Thursday and dropped midday. The index was down 0.11% from Thursday and is up a measly basis point from last Friday. The index is up 3.10% YTD and is 3.25% below its record close.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses the outlook for major economies and geopolitical developments.
Every quarter we ask bond and currency managers to consider valuations, expectations and outlooks for the coming months. Today, we’ve put the spotlight on U.S. rates and inflation expectations, credit markets and casualties from rising U.S. interest rates.
Across the eurozone, political leaders are entering a state of paralysis: citizens want to remain in the EU, but they also want an end to austerity and the return of prosperity. So long as Germany tells them they can’t have both, there can be only one outcome: more pain, more suffering, more unemployment, and even slower growth.
Risk to the euro resurfaces in an unlikely governing coalition and challenging economic agenda, but Italy’s top stocks don’t face the same perils as its government bonds.
It is not hard to imagine that if Italy's new government proceeds with its ambitious fiscal plans, instituting both a flat tax and a universal basic income, it could blow up the budget deficit. In that case, Italy could quickly find itself out of the eurozone and ring-fenced by capital controls, whether the government intended this or not.
For this post, I’d like to offer a few “Disintegrated Thoughts” on some things I’ve been thinking about in the investment markets. These include: The ECB and volatility deleveraging, Business building and ignoring valuations, Sticking up for “speculation” and Notes from the judo mat.