Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said the neutral level for the central bank’s policy rate had likely risen since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Cambria Investments CIO and founder Meb Faber explores David Swensen’s legendary investment strategy at Yale’s endowment, comparing its long-term performance to traditional portfolios and examining whether individual investors can replicate its success.
Volatility is back in town. Tariff jitters and concerns about growth and inflation have resulted in an S&P 500® dip and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumping above 20. Investors grapple with a very sanguine backdrop painted by the fourth-quarter earnings season and policy uncertainty.
The value today of quality bond exposure in your high yield portfolio.
Treasury yields have been falling for weeks. Yet inflation expectations remain high and recent growth data have been fairly strong—not a traditional backdrop for declining yields. What's happening?
We view quarterly earnings season as a critical checkup on how markets are handling current challenges.
Unlike most of the rest of the world, I will attempt to minimize all there is to say about the beginning of the next 4 years, as the persistent yack and what to make of it reverberates in all corners of the financial globe.
Just recently, S&P Global released its 2026 earnings estimates, which, for lack of a better word, have gone parabolic. Such should not be surprising given the ongoing exuberance on Wall Street. Unsurprisingly, rationalizations justify illogic when too much money is chasing too few assets.
Today we are going to revisit that matrix updated through 2024. We will see what we got right and wrong, what further inferences we can now make and why I think it confirms my general shift in market strategy over the past few years.
Starting in 2025, many non-spouse beneficiaries of inherited retirement accounts must begin taking annual minimum distributions. Our Bill Cass details several strategies and explains why it’s important to seek advice.
The decision to drill for oil is not primarily driven by government mandates or regulatory pressure, but rather by market forces.
An aggressive U.S. tariff regime will come down hard on major economies.
The fourth quarter 2024 earnings season more-or-less wraps up this week with the final trickle of retailers coming in, as well as the highly anticipated report from Nvidia which was out yesterday afternoon.
The U.S. economy remains structurally productive. American Economic Exceptionalism is powered by innovation and labor flexibility.
In this post we attempt to demystify the mechanics and implications behind why the Fed is considering pausing its QT program.
Equities were continuing to grind higher until Friday’s selloff, as the market got caught up in weaker economic data and potential tariff changes, which could shake up earnings expectations and global trade flows.
Retail investors are expected to become more bullish about increasing equity exposure when markets rise.
Earnings season is winding down, and the spotlight will soon shift toward 2025 trends after an impressive end to last year.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. pledged to invest more than 380 billion yuan ($53 billion) on AI infrastructure such as data centers over the next three years, a major commitment that underscores the e-commerce pioneer’s ambitions of becoming a leader in artificial intelligence.
None of us outside Trump’s inner circle know what the real goals are. What looks like needless chaos might lead to benefits that outweigh the costs. One potential benefit is revenue. Could the tariffs produce significant tax revenue that would help reduce the federal debt? The president seems to think so.
Long maturity treasuries can provide downside protection to offset equity risk, in our view.
Following the relatively solid January Employment Situation report, the market’s undivided attention, at least economic data-wise, then turned to the latest CPI reading. Indeed, with the jobs aspect of the Fed’s dual mandate clearly showing no urgency to cut rates further at this time, the question then turned to the inflation portion of the policy maker’s mission.
Alacrity Solutions found itself in a tough spot. The Indiana-based company helps property and auto insurers manage customer claims by taking calls, sending adjusters into the field and reviewing files.
Growth and value are often thought of simplistically, but subsurface details in growth- and value-labeled indexes challenge pre-conceived notions of the factors.
Many boomers are business owners who are selling their businesses. This article provides guidance for these retiring business owners, their heirs and their advisors. This article also discusses opportunities for investors to capitalize on this once-in-a-lifetime mass exodus of baby boomer business owners.
Stocks bounced back after tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were delayed, but tariff issues are not yet solved and still hold the potential to drive market volatility.
Our research shows how artificial intelligence can potentially enhance performance of equity investing.
For a few months now, I’ve been referring to today’s heightened geopolitical climate as the “new red Cold War,” where artificial intelligence (AI)—not necessarily fighter jets and nuclear weapons—serves as the primary battleground between the U.S. and its adversaries, most notably Russia and China.
At the same time, the Fed has mostly ignored the impact of easy financial conditions—the combination of stock, bond, and credit conditions—offsetting increases in interest rates by bolstering wealth and confidence.
Recent developments may just offer advisors and investors fresh pathways with which to attain higher yield in 2025.
You’ve set your 2025 budgets, and now you’re working with them – but is your marketing budget supporting the firm’s growth goal?
ETFs have always been a useful tool to play momentum and reversal in markets. However, the biggest question is always when to enter and exit such specific ETFs as the markets move through their cycles.
Tariff threats offer a glimpse of what is in store.
Integrating private assets may enhance target-date glide paths, but know your exposures.
Looking for an investment idea that’s paid off handsomely in commodities markets over the past six months? Try betting on the tropics.
Tech results last week were more anticipated than usual due to the emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek in the prior week.
We hope you enjoy the latest newsletter from Harold Evensky.
In a first quarter 2025 asset allocation report, Confluence expects resilient economic growth in the short term.
Amazon.com Inc. shares have largely climbed on the back of two trends: strength in its cloud business and a focus on costs. Now both could be in question.
Factories across the world are growing increasingly idle. Global industrial capacity utilization (CAPU) has fallen significantly, and a rising unemployment rate has followed suit, signaling that the available factors of production globally are progressively more redundant.
Stone Ridge’s Nate Conrad goes in-depth on the $20+ billion asset manager’s suite of LifeX Longevity Income ETFs. VettaFi’s Kirsten Chang takes an early look at ETF flow trends in 2025.
In this article, Russ Koesterich discusses why gold may continue to advance in 2025 despite a stronger dollar and elevated real rate environment.
The Magnificent 7 kicked off fourth quarter reporting in a similar fashion to the Q3 season. Tesla once again missed expectations when they reported on Wednesday, on both the top and bottom-line this time (vs. only missing on revenues in Q3), yet investors seemed unbothered.
A lot has changed since a new administration took charge on Jan. 20, so the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to maintain its policy rate might seem odd.
The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is moving at lightning speed, and one of the biggest stories this past week underscores just how critical the technology has become—not just for Silicon Valley, but for America’s national security and global competitiveness.
Karen Carpenter was one the greatest singers of my lifetime. One of her biggest hits was called, “Top of the World.” The key line of the song says, “I’m on top of the world looking down on creation and the only explanation I can find, is the love that I’ve found ever since you’ve been around, you most put me at the top of the world!”
Looking back to 2024, global equity markets remained resilient despite a challenging final few weeks. U.S. equities led both annually and quarterly, buoyed by robust corporate earnings, supportive fiscal policies and market optimism following the Republicans’ red sweep in November.
In today’s post, we will examine the money supply represented by M2, the Federal budget deficit, the Fed’s previous adventures with QE, and the correlation to inflation.
Quality has become a popular buzzword in equity investing. But what does it really mean?
There is a lot that goes into getting someone to trust you with their entire life savings. You must honor that trust and know it has value.
