Last week, the BlackRock Target Allocation Team reduced their equity exposure and reduced some growth allocations in favor of value.
Part one of this series described the burgeoning bull steepening yield curve environment and what it implies about economic growth and Fed policy. It also discussed the three other predominant types of yield curve shifts and what they suggest for the economy and Fed policy.
Cloud computing has been one of the first industries to get a demonstrable boost from artificial intelligence. Oracle Corp.’s quarterly results on Monday are likely to extend that trend.
The main focus for investors should is no longer if the Fed will cut rates in 2024, but how much and how quickly the Fed will lower interest rates.
Money can still be a factor in inflation.
Labor Day weekend, marking the end of the US summer driving season, is typically the year’s last hurrah for gasoline producers. This year, the high-fives were reserved for drivers (and White House occupants): The average pre-long weekend pump price was down 13% from last year after gasoline refining margins collapsed in August. Pump prices have eased further this week.
Despite pullbacks and elevated volatility in the earlier days of the month, major equity indices were up in August.
When we’re viewing markets, it’s not surprising sentiment shifts quickly if we don’t instantly see the anticipated results. Market pundits quickly point fingers and determine the Fed, economists, and participants are wrong. Reactions can be powerful in number and sway momentum for stocks and/or bonds.
A bright spot in Chinese investment could spell trouble for its financial institutions.
After a decade of consistent outperformance, Japanese small caps began underperforming their large cap peers in 2018, a trend that has accelerated since 2023.
Cliff Asness says he sounds like an “old man whinging,” but that’s not stopping him from writing 23 pages on his latest thesis: Financial markets these days aren’t what they were.
While short-term fluctuations and sudden selloffs have tested the markets, key indicators such as corporate profits, employment data, and economic resilience have held firm.
Will 2030 DC plans perform better at preparing U.S. workers for retirement?
The healthcare sector offers a compelling mix of defensive characteristics and growth potential driven by innovation. It also features ample dispersion that presents stock pickers with an opportunity to parse potential leaders and laggards in pursuit of above-market return.
With US payroll and unemployment data surprising to the downside two Fridays ago, Treasury markets quickly repriced the probability of impending recession, helping set off a volatility spike in stocks across the world. According to Bloomberg, economists’ consensus probability of a US recession in the next twelve months is now approximately 30%.
My colleague Will Keenan recommended an outstanding book, The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King, by Michael Craig. The book is a short and entertaining read of how Andy Beal played the best poker players in the world heads-up. He not only gambled toe-to-toe, but he also reminded them that they were doing what everyone should think poker is: gambling.
This week we take a not-so-random walk through the data, trying to simplify what is actually a fairly complex subject. I think it is quite fun, but also important. Let's dive in.
Our outlook on the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors.
After market expectations spiked to nearly five interest rate cuts in 2024 based on disappointing labor market report early in the month, reassuring data in the form of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims have quelled market Markets have eased expectations for interest rate cuts, pricing closer to four cuts as of the end of last week.
Since our last update of the Three Tactical Rules on June 25, 2024, equity markets have retraced most of the rally from the spring. The change in market sentiment came abruptly, due to the labor market showing signs of weakness as the number of jobs available per unemployed worker fell to 1.2 and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The recent market volatility has had a dramatic impact on our tactical rules.
Amid expectations of rate cuts from major central banks, managers are increasing their exposure to more cyclical and value-oriented names, including autos, transportation, and short-cycle industrials.
Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal Reserve have continued to predict a return to higher levels of economic growth. The hope remains that the Trillions of dollars spent during the pandemic-driven economic shutdown will turn into lasting organic economic growth.
Are the “Mega-Cap” stocks dead? Maybe. But there are four reasons why they could be staged for a comeback. The recent market correction from the July peak certainly got investors’ attention and rattled the more extreme complacency.
Silver is an important component of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, meaning that for China to reach its ambitious climate targets, it must import massive amounts of the white metal. In June alone, China spent over $228 million on silver, a new monthly record based on Bloomberg data going back to 2009.
Ethical Capital's Sloane Ortel marshals the data to counter the arguments against aggressively fighting climate change laid out in Larry Siegel's recent article.
Value has been in a protracted slump versus growth for years, but it’s been undergoing something of a makeover during that time.
If rising layoffs and weakening consumption are going to snowball into a US recession at some point, my interpretation is that the mass of macroeconomic ice crystals is still only about the size of a marble.
Because there is unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented,” we thought it appropriate to expand our annual Charts for the Beach from 5 charts to 10 charts and tables this year. So, probably best to stay under the beach umbrella as you read our unprecedented extended edition.
Alphabet Inc. investors are facing a long period of uncertainty as they grapple with a scenario they previously saw as unlikely: a possible breakup of Google.
Baby Boomers likely won’t have time to recover from the next crash. Their loss is also their heirs’ loss. There’s $70 trillion in play. Baby boomers shouldn’t be greater fools.
Friday’s jobs report has put a damper on economic sentiment for the moment. But much hype has been made about the so-called “Great Rotation.”
Andy Rothman provides four reasons why he’s stubbornly convinced that Xi Jinping will eventually overcome his stubbornness and make the changes necessary to put China back on track to reach its potential growth rate.
Turmoil in the markets has renewed fears that the US did not escape history after all, that a hard landing — a recession — is coming. Whether this is all a blip from a rising yen or a justified reaction to an actual weakening of the US economy is still unknowable.
During each speculative run-up in asset prices – whether the dot-com bubble, the housing bubble, or more recently the rapid rise (and fall) of the stocks of electric vehicle companies – there’s typically a moment when Wall Street strategists, analysts, and investors go all-in on that theme.
Recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, along with shifting AI sentiment, have raised concerns over whether strong headline returns, low volatility, and persistent mega cap tech leadership can continue as we look ahead.
The strong currency is neither a blessing nor a curse.
Never before in my history studying the Federal Reserve (Fed) has the Fed’s policy come into question immediately following the Fed decision.
On this episode of the “ETF of the Week” podcast, VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta International Equity ETF (GSIE) with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.” The pair talked about several topics regarding the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
Today’s passive index investing requires active choices, as customization and innovations in index funds have resulted in new considerations for investors and the potential for greater control.
This article examines both breaches at AT&T, discusses how the data can be used to perpetrate detailed deep fakes, and shares how you can advise your clients and staff to protect your clients’ investments.
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor.
The Momentum factor picked up where it left off at the end of the first quarter, turning in another standout performance in the April-through-June timeframe and ending the second quarter as the factor most relevant to positive performance.
As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account as one factor of many that may impact global liquidity, and in turn, market performance in the coming two quarters.
The small cap rally has primarily been a de-risking event. It's unclear at this point whether it’s just a blip or the beginning of a new trend in market leadership.
It's been another strong first half for the U.S. ETF industry, with overall flows set to challenge or surpass historic records.
The second quarter began with inflation concerns causing a negative return in April, but improved inflation led to a more hopeful market in May and June, with AI and semiconductor stocks leading.
Qraft Technologies took AI-driven investment products to the next level with the launch of the LG-QRAFT AI-Powered U.S. Large Cap Core ETF (LQAI) in November of 2023. The firm partnered with LG AI Research, an artificial intelligence (AI) research hub of South Korea's LG Group, to create LQAI.
Investors flocked to the US Treasury’s monthly sale of two-year notes in a powerful demonstration of faith in Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts beginning this year.
While it's too early to declare small caps' recent outperformance as a meaningful trend shift, we continue to think high-quality companies and industries will likely perform well.
