CIO Sean Taylor assesses a better-than-expected quarter for emerging markets and takes stock of the drivers that may support the asset class in what could be difficult months ahead for global markets.
It’s always an honor for me to both attend and speak at the Barron’s conference. In thinking about this column, I am recalling many of the amazing presentations, great insights and fabulous speakers I heard.
Builder confidence inched up in April thanks to a recent dip in mortgage rates however economic uncertainty stemming from tariff concerns kept sentiment negative for a 12th straight month. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to 40 this month, up 1 point from March. The latest reading was above the 38 forecast.
If the goal is to use technological platforms to customize and maximize the experience for your clients, it seems many of us still have a way to go.
Markets have had a wild ride these past couple of weeks, alongside chaotic tariff-related news, with volatility (and its policy triggers) most elevated in the bond market.
Travel on all roads and streets declined in February. The 12-month moving average was down 0.11% month-over-month but was up 0.95% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.17% MoM and down 0.95% YoY.
Three of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through April 14, 2025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is in the top spot with a year to date gain of 9.14%. Germany’s DAXK is in second with a year to date gain of 4.10% while China's Shanghai is in third with a year to date gain of 0.01%.
If Trump is successful in ending — or at least significantly changing — the current global economic structure, the economy and geopolitics will change dramatically. Initially, this will be highly challenging from an investment perspective.
As with all decisions involving uncertainty, we want to find the answer which maximizes your expected risk-adjusted return, not your base-case or expected return. This means that we have to go beyond the industry standard and explicitly account for risk in our analysis.
Bonds have gained as investors sought shelter amid growing fears around a tariff-driven global economic slowdown.
Markets responded swiftly to President Trump’s recent announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling more than 3% in a single day.
Last week President Trump announced tariffs on nearly all US trading partners, a move that far exceeded the most pessimistic expectations of market participants.
Inflation cooled for a second straight month in March, falling to its lowest level in over four years. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
Members of Congress from both parties were among the many caught off guard by last week's Rose Garden tariff announcement.
In an era when a select group of tech behemoths has dominated market returns, investors are growing increasingly wary of the concentration risk it poses.
The fifth edition of our annual “Voice of the American Workplace” survey, conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Franklin Templeton, includes the perspectives of both employers and workers. The 2025 survey found US workers are prioritizing work-life balance and their mental health. Employers are listening and strengthening their focus on improving benefits and communication. In this piece, our Jacque Reardon shares findings from the survey and potential implications for employers.
The recent market drawdown highlights risks of a concentrated S&P 500—and the case for diversification now.
Many of us came into the year with highly concentrated portfolios, which now were faced with changing market conditions.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for March. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 228,000.
As investors are uncomfortably aware of, global equity markets have been in freefall since U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.
VettaFi’s Head of Research Todd Rosenbluth discussed the T. Rowe Price International Equity ETF (TOUS) on this week’s “ETF of the Week” podcast with Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life.”
Multiple jobholders account for 5.6% of civilian employment, the highest level in over 20 years.
What does the ratio of unemployment claims to the civilian labor force tell us about where we are in the business cycle and recession risk?
Like a crossword puzzle, President Trump has been bombarding the media with clues about his economic policy. Given the importance of inflation and interest rates to the economy and the financial markets, it's worth assessing his clues and formulating some answers about what Trump may be up to.
Last week's economic landscape was dramatically reshaped by President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariff policies on what he declared "Liberation Day." His announcement triggered a historic sell-off in the stock market.
Global markets are in freefall in response to President Donald Trump’s universal 10% tariff on all goods being imported into the U.S., with as many as 60 countries facing “reciprocal” tariffs on top of that.
In the report, Fixed income portfolio managers Brent Olson and Tim Winstone reflect on the initial credit market response to President Trump’s tariffs.
Social Security faces funding issues by 2035, but major changes to the program are unlikely in the near term.
Active ETFs just topped the $1 trillion threshold, making up nearly 10% of the total ETF pie. Enhanced yield is the name of the game.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its March Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8—below the forecast of 53.0. This marks the ninth consecutive month of expansion but the slowest growth since June 2024.
The March U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 54.4, just above the 54.3 forecast. The reading marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth of the year so far.
Investors face new challenges as their wealth grows. So it’s a good thing that direct indexing is designed to fit their allocations just the way they are.
This year’s whiplash headlines and thrashing in equity markets have done little to slow down the ETF industry.
The world has entered a period of geopolitical uncertainty, with the U.S. now at the center of the storm.
Fixed income investors can opt for corporate bonds to maximize yield opportunities without sacrificing too much credit risk.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in March, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing after marginal expansion in February. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 49.5.
U.S. manufacturing growth stalled in March amid economic and tariff uncertainty. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory for a third straight month in March at 50.2 signaling a marginal improvement in operating conditions. The latest reading was higher than the 49.8 forecast.
Amid a market correction and heightened policy, inflation and growth concerns, valuations are back in the spotlight.
During the ten years prior to COVID, PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure, averaged about 1.5% per year. Jerome Powell said it was too low and he wanted inflation to “average” 2% over time.
On this week’s episode of “ETF of the Week,” Chuck Jaffe of “Money Life” discussed the Invesco CEF Income Composite ETF (PCEF) with Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi. The pair discussed several topics related to the fund to give investors a deeper understanding of the ETF overall.
This article explores the GDPNow and Nowcast models to understand the recent forecast divergences. A better understanding of the two models helps us appreciate the current state of the economy and, therefore, better estimate the first quarter GDP.
With the release of February's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.83% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to 0.50% when we adjust for inflation, the largest monthly gain since January 2024. The year-over-year metrics are 3.63% nominal and 1.06% real.
The world’s largest asset manager is betting big on a growing breed of derivatives-powered ETFs that’s shaking up the art of active portfolio management.
Long-maturity Treasury yields reached the highest levels in a month Thursday as investors demand compensation for the risk that tariffs will spur US inflation.
Investing requires more than just understanding global markets. Geopolitical risk matters, from China to Russia to Europe and more.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity decreased modestly in March, with the composite index at -2. This is slightly above February's -5 reading and is tied for the highest reading since August 2023. Future expectations stayed positive, though they dipped from 14 in February to 10 in March.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index increased more than expected in February, rebounding from the previous month's record low. The index came in at 72.0, a 2.0% rise from the previous month but a 3.6% drop from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.
For taxable investors with sizable gains in their brokerage accounts, the decision when to realize that capital gain is intensely personal—depending of course on individual circumstances, while also factoring in market return expectations and the prevailing tax structure.
As policy uncertainty grows, we consider how tariffs and other government actions might impact inflation, interest rates, and market sentiment.
The stock market sell-off appears to be signaling a recession. However, we believe the bond market disagrees.
