Amid the debate over student loans — President Joe Biden’s administration tried and failed to forgive some of the debt, which starts accruing interest this month after a three-year pause — a crucial question has often been overlooked: Who benefits the most from student loans? It’s not necessarily the students.
2023’s market rally continues to center itself on the big tech comeback with certain themes exhibiting strength like artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. While these themes can offer traders short-term opportunities, they can also persist in the long term as growth plays.
Quarterly commentary giving an overview of the markets and the importance of having and implementing a strategy when investing in the markets.
With the release of August's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. At two decimal places, the nominal 0.18% month-over-month change in disposable income comes to -0.21% when we adjust for inflation. The year-over-year metrics are 6.76% nominal and 3.17% real.
Small-cap stocks and related exchange traded funds are taking a back seat to large-cap counterparts this year. The Russell 2000 Index has shed almost 5% over the past month. However, some market observers remain constructive on smaller stocks.
In our latest Quarterly Letter, Ben Inker and John Pease discuss the new economic regime, how investors can prepare for a recession, and the merits of combining high quality and cheap assets in today’s environment.
The latest Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey composite index declined somewhat in September and the future outlook fell slightly. The composite index came in at -8, down from 0 in August, while the future outlook decreased to 1 from 2 last month.
The imminent US government shutdown that threatens to delay the publication of key economic data will test policymakers’ and investors’ trust in a range of less-regarded third-party indicators.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Sept. 20 remarks represented the first time the Fed leadership has sanctioned the idea that the equilibrium policy rate has risen this year; previously, Powell repeatedly avoided taking a view.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) released the latest monthly data for its pending home sales index. The index plummeted 7.1% in August to 71.8, a larger decline than the expected -0.8% decrease. This is the lowest reading for the index since April 2020 and is the second lowest figure in the historical series. Pending home sales are down 18.7% compared to one year ago.
The MOVEit breach affected the clients of every wealth manager in America.
You’re not there to make friends. You’re there to create trust by diagnosing their issues.
Deride the tactics of car salespeople all you wish, but their primary sales tool shows just how much brokers pay their employers.
Home prices continued to trend upwards in July as the benchmark 20-city index rose for a fifth consecutive month. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed seasonally adjusted home prices for the 20-city index saw a 0.9% increase month-over-month (MoM) and a 0.1% increase year-over-year (YoY). After adjusting for inflation, the MoM was reduced to 0.4% and the YoY was reduced to -7.0%.
In many ways, 2023 continues to be the mirror image of 2022, with the most volatile assets being some of the best performers for much of the year.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for major markets in the months ahead.
Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through September 25, 2023. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 25.23%. The U.S.'s S&P 500 finished in second with a YTD gain of 13.42% while India's BSE SENSEX finished in third with a YTD gain of 7.72%.
Investors think about companies as being either large or small. In between those extremes are midcaps. Based on historical performance and fundamentals, midcaps should command more attention.
By applying artificial intelligence and Chat GPT to statements made by active fund managers, researchers have found that their underperformance can be partly explained by overconfidence that led to, among other things, excessive risk taking.
Some seven weeks ago, hedge fund investor Bill Ackman laid out his rationale for shorting long-term US bonds, and I took exception.
US small-cap and industrial stocks are dropping, typically signals of a recession, but in a year where equities have already beaten expectations some investors are dismissing the moves as little more than noise — for now.
While our Washington Policy analyst believes there is a path to a resolution to avoid a government shutdown ahead of the looming September 30 deadline, the rhetoric out of Washington suggests otherwise.
The Federal Reserve weighs the data while investors wonder: Is the rate-hike cycle over?
The latest Underlying Inflation Gauge full data set for August is 3.0%, down 0.1% from last month, while the prices-only measure is 2.3%, unchanged from last month. Current Headline CPI is now 3.7% and Core CPI is 4.3%.
Existing home sales continued their downward trend in August as prices remained elevated. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell by 0.7% from July to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.04 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 4.10 million. Existing home sales are down 15.3% compared to one year ago.
Labor strikes aren’t cheap. Equipment sits idle. Supply chains get gummed up. Workers lose wages, shareholders lose profits, governments lose tax revenue. All these effects can have an adverse impact on economic growth, employment and inflation.
Can the economy grow 2.0% to 2.5% faster per year over the next 10 years than the last 30 years? I don't think so.
To widen your audience, deepen client bonds, and carve out a strong market presence, a webinar strategy is your ticket to success.
Given the uncertainty over a recession, there are other incremental steps that investors may want to consider instead. These include making adjustments to a portfolio’s market beta and credit exposure.
A return to the Great Moderation Era looks unlikely, which might lead to an increasingly volatile—and somewhat unfamiliar—inflationary, economic, and geopolitical landscape.
Celebrating an exciting milestone: Franklin Income Fund turns 75. Learn more about this flagship strategy and read some fun facts from back in 1948.
How do you stand out in the crowded inbox and get more email opens?
Now seems like a good time to talk about wrappers and which ones are best for different situations. How do you decide whether to use an ETF, a mutual fund, or something else?
When markets are in a rising tide, all boats (aka stocks) can benefit. When the waters are choppier, active equity selection aims to identify the sounder vessels. Tony DeSpirito reviews five reasons why he believes the new environment is setting up to favor an active approach.
His approach to investing was both timeless and accessible to the average investor. It also achieved incredible results.
High mortgage rates continue to weaken builder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) fell 5 points from last month to 45, the index's second straight monthly decline.
Forced deleveraging to be chaotic, causing a new Fed and banking panic.
AI, with its data analysis and predictive power, can revolutionize investing. However, humans remain a crucial part of the process. Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions provides use cases into how different investors can harness AI to achieve their desired outcomes and workflows.
BlackRock and Human Interest have found that American workers earning less than the national average are not saving due to lack of access to saving tools. Broadening access requires an intuitive and automated approach to retirement savings.
Last week the World Gold Council reported that central banks continued to add to their global gold reserves during the month of July. The World Gold Council also highlighted that China, Poland and Turkey were among the countries that were the largest buyers of gold during the month.
The consensus is wrong, and the Fed has not engineered a “soft landing.” A recession is all but certain in the first half of next year, according to Jeffrey Gundlach.
In February this year we wrote an article entitled A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession. Fast forward to the current situation, where opinion has shifted away from recession in favor of a soft-landing scenario. Does that same contrary analysis mean a recession is now more likely? The simple answer is no, not yet anyway!
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed steadily over the past two years. But we believe fixed-income investors should be prepared for lower yields ahead.
For the savvy private wealth investor, portfolio diversity is key to success. Investing in infrastructure is one option that can help you both optimize your portfolio and make a positive and meaningful impact on your local community.
The median US income in 2022 was $74,580, up from $22,420 in 1984 — a 233% rise over the 38-year time frame. However, if we adjust for inflation chained in 2022 dollars, the 1984 median is $56,780, and the increase drops to 31%.
The median household is the statistical center of the Middle Class. Let's take a closer look at the Census Bureau's latest annual household income data, issued earlier this month, with a focus on middle class income. In this update, we'll focus on the growing gap between the median (middle) and mean (average) household incomes across the complete time frame of the Census Bureau's annual reporting, which began in 1967, to the release of the annual data for 2022.
Let me share some reminders about what needs to be in place for team members to thrive and stay inspired.
Headline inflation rose for a second straight month in August while core inflation continued to cool. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index increased to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.2% in July. The latest reading is slightly higher than the expected 3.6% annual increase. The core CPI reading was consistent with expectations at 4.3%, a slow down from 4.7% in July.
Our commentary on household income distribution focuses on average household incomes over the 50+ year history of this data series. The analysis offers some fascinating insights into U.S. household incomes, but misses the implications of age for income. In this update, we examine household income from a different perspective with a focus on age bracket.
We expect yields to fall later this year and into 2024 as inflation continues to cool.
