The opposite of populist nationalism is not globalist elitism; it is economic realism. And in the end, countries such as Britain, the United States, and now Italy will learn the hard way that reality always eventually wins.
Team performance matters more than star players or a large resource base. And in a rapidly changing world, Totaalvoetbal can help teams adapt.
Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, June 18, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 5.13%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 3.75%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 2.60%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 8.63%.
Energy equities have underperformed the S&P 500 materially over the last five years. While spot oil prices have risen significantly over the last twelve months, longer dated oil prices have not, and energy equities have remained under pressure.
We have used this quip from the book Why You Win or Lose: The Psychology of Speculation by Fred C. Kelly many times in our missives over the past nearly five decades because the wisdom of its message is timeless. We recalled it last week in many of our meetings in New York City when we heard certain individual investors, as well as portfolio managers (PMs), say “I should have!”
Californians live in fear of a devastating earthquake. But homeowners are far more likely to suffer a loss from a fire or even a sewer backup. The proper insurance protects against those losses. But, according to Brian Trouette, many homeowners lack sufficient coverage.
The U.S. inflation story made further inroads this month, with year-over-year price growth for consumers and producers alike hitting multiyear highs. U.S. consumer prices expanded at their strongest pace in more than six years, climbing to an annual change of 2.8 percent in May. Prices for final demand goods, meanwhile, grew 3.1 percent, their strongest annual surge since December 2011.
PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board discusses the outlook for major economies and geopolitical developments.
Fears of new threats to emerging markets have cooled stock returns after two years of hot performance. But the concerns may be overstated. The long-term risk profile of emerging markets is continuing to improve.
This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 149.3, up 0.08 from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 3.40%, up from 3.22% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.7, up from the previous week.