Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis.
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a "normal" market environment -- one with conventional business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation -- current valuation levels would be a serious concern. But these are different times.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month.
The Fed acted as expected by not acting on interest rates; and although there was no associated press conference, the statement had a few nuggets of note.
In 2018, President Trump’s tweets on international trade have led to bouts of market volatility and concerns of a global economic slowdown. Against this backdrop, Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions’ Matthias Hoppe explains why he thinks economic fundamentals will determine the fate of the global economy more than Trump’s words will.
A landmark study looked back at more than 100 years of data and 23 countries to determine if there are reasons to believe the cross-sectional patterns in factor returns will persist, or whether they were just anomalies that tended to disappear after publication.
A single line chart is keeping an awful lot of investors up at night: the US Treasury yield curve. It’s been flattening steadily since the end of 2016 and is nearly the flattest it’s been since 2007. We all remember what happened after that.
In 2018, rising inflation, higher US interest rates and escalating trade tensions have led to concerns about global economic growth and bouts of equity-market volatility.
The Northern Trust Economics team shares its monthly perspective on the growth prospects and challenges ahead for key markets.
The last couple of years have been remarkable ones for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July of 2016 and then rose 158 BPs to its interim high of 2.96% as of the July 31 close.