A review of bonds, domestic equities, and international equities at the four-month mark of 2018.
When you see trade deficit data between the US and China, be aware that the numbers are vastly different depending on the source. China actually follows a more commonly used protocol to account for trade than does the US. For 2016, for example, US data shows a $375 billion trade deficit with China, whereas China shows $276 billion.
To address questions about the benefits of international investing and diversification, we don’t have to look too far back in time.
You’ve no doubt heard that everything’s bigger in Texas. That’s more than just a trite expression, and I’m not just saying that because Texas is home to U.S. Global Investors.
In biblical tradition, the four horsemen of the apocalypse are a quartet of immensely powerful entities personifying the four prime concepts – war, famine, pestilence and death – that drive the apocalypse. For today’s investors, the equivalent is historically high equity valuations, historically low bond yields, increasing longevity and, as a result, the increasing need for what can be very expensive long-term care.
Today I’d like to share a few words about the Olympics, but first, two words: Don’t panic.
Jeremy Siegel almost never gives a one-year forecast for stocks, but last week he predicted that U.S. equities will end the year with gains of as much as 10%. That may seem meager for investors who have benefited from double-digit gains in seven of the last nine years, but Siegel said this year will be far better for stocks than it will be for bonds.
We are at an interesting point in this economic and capital market adventure we have been through for almost ten years. We hesitate to use the word “cycle” because that implies that economic activity, measured by the output of our country, and in turn the capital markets, would actually turn down.
It is important to separate mini-manias from true bubbles. Unfortunately, the difference is mostly the amount of money chasing the folly. Millions and even billions of dollars lost (and thousands of jobs) equate to fads, while trillions of dollars lost (and rampant unemployment and recessions) are bubbles.
Much as I want to know the future, I’ve long since recognized the dangers of our addiction to predictions, which are usually heralded by so-called market gurus. I’ll give you seven surefire ways to spot those purveyors of bad advice, but first let’s look at a far more useful set of forecasts.