Economic growth continues, and although this cycle has been the slowest recovery in post-war history, the slower growth has allowed for a prolonged cycle. Inflation remains low—since peaking in 1980, the U.S. has experienced consistent disinflation.
History shows, and investment strategists tout, that small cap stocks are the best performing asset class. While small caps outperformed the runner-up, large cap stocks, over the last nearly 100 years, research has shown that the outperformance hasn’t persisted over all multi-year time periods and that the outperformance is concentrated in microcap stocks.
The term “trend” now has a broader use. Trending is a term used in reference to the buildup of posts on social media. And we find ourselves in a day and age when the leader of the free world is posting using stream of consciousness—annoyingly against a department store that no longer supports his daughter’s line of clothing or worse, tweeting against judges who disagree with his policies. This is a trend we shouldn’t miss.
There are a lot of economic negatives to worry about these days. Slow growth, annual GDP rising at only 2.1% on average since the '08 recession. Stagnation. Low inflation. Burgeoning government debt relative to GDP. One third of global government bonds at negative yields (and a few corporate bonds now too). Corporate earnings per share declining for 6 consecutive quarters, even after historically high share buybacks. High share prices from relatively high earnings multiples—the S&P 500 at 17x forward earnings. Falling worker productivity for the third consecutive quarter. Flat retail sales, likely as a result of an over indebted consumer. High inventories relative to sales. The U.S. government putting the kibosh on several potential deals. Corporate insider buying at only one third of their selling—a poor ratio. General uncertainty, much stemming from an election year with two controversial candidates espousing controversial policies.