With inflation falling and growth slowly grinding lower, time is running out on many global central bank tightening cycles – especially for the Federal Reserve (Fed) that meets next week.
Markets can present challenges for investors as volatility, direction, supply, outside influences, and future expectations are continuously changing.
Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions.
The Fed is executing its playbook according to plan – get interest rates up quickly, keep tightening albeit at a more moderate pace, and then hold rates steady to allow real rates to nudge higher as inflation recedes.
Ed Mills, Managing Director, Washington Policy, discusses how recent U.S. policy decisions are the foundation for an industrial renaissance aimed at building up the economic base and protecting it against certain geopolitical and supply chain risks.
While this is a market estimate and in no way guaranteed, let’s just pretend for a minute that there is a 100% chance of this coming true and the FOMC is going to raise the Fed Funds rate by an additional 50 basis points.
Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes note that while it is taking longer to bring inflation down, the Fed will continue to conduct monetary policy to reach its target rate.
The tech sector was the MVP of the first half. Tech is likely to maintain All-Star status in the second half.
Following a strong start to 2023, CIO Larry Adam and his team share their outlook for the remainder of the year.
Better than expected first quarter earnings, decelerating inflation and growing optimism about a soft, non-recessionary landing have driven the market's positive 2023 start.
Rob Tayloe discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The U.S. economy grew at a more-than-expected 2.0% annualized rate of growth during the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter. In some sense, this rate of economic growth makes a little bit more sense than the previously reported 1.3% rate...
This weekend marks the official start of the Tour de France – one of the biggest cycling events in the world! Cyclists begin their journey in Bilboa, Spain and over the next 23 days will traverse through challenging terrain, covering a grueling ~2,200 miles.
Did you know that American forests offset 12% of total U.S. emissions? With wildfires back in the headlines, Energy Analyst Pavel Molchanov discusses the crucial role of reforestation efforts.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) still has a very tough job ahead to bring inflation down to its 2% target over the long run while facing pressures from markets, which have a very different timetable than the Fed.
This past Wednesday marked the official start of summer! The summer solstice represents the best time of year – the maximum amount of daylight coupled with warm temperatures.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
The surprising resilience of the economy despite the aggressive tightening remains the Fed’s biggest challenge at this point in the cycle. Below we discuss how the Fed’s thinking will likely evolve for the remainder of the year and what it means for the markets.
Doug Drabik discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
For the first time since beginning the current tightening cycle in March 2022, the Fed opted against raising the federal funds rate at the June 14, 2023, FOMC meeting. The decision officially ends a run of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes by the central bank.
While the Fed wants to retain optionality on further hikes and affirm rate cuts are not on the horizon for this year, we anticipate that slowing economic momentum and easing inflation pressures will lead to the beginning of an easing cycle in 2024.
Managing substantial wealth often requires specialized capabilities and expertise.
Choppiness in the equity market continues as investors look to see a debt limit deal approved.
Nick Goetze discusses fixed-income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam.
Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.
Review the latest Weekly Headings by CIO Larry Adam. Tighter lending standards still pose a risk. The debt ceiling issue will get resolved. The earnings outlook is improving.
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs.
Lawmakers in Washington set government spending and revenue plans every fiscal year, usually producing a shortfall that many of us know as the federal budget deficit.
With regional bank volatility grabbing headlines, CIO Larry Adam looks at what this activity means for the economy and asset classes.
Key Takeaways
If there was a message the Federal Reserve (Fed) wanted to make clear after the end of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 3, it was that it reserves the right to remain hawkish.
On the heels of its 10th consecutive rate hike since March 2022, the Federal Reserve hedged its bets on pausing rate adjustments.
Along with identifying your goals and time horizon, assessing risk is a key part of building a holistic financial plan. And while affluent investors generally have higher risk tolerances, determining their individual risk profiles isn’t straightforward.
As the name implies, loss aversion is our instinct to not just prefer a gain over a loss but to prioritize avoiding losses over almost anything. It might sound wise to try avoiding losses but taking it too far could keep you from realizing your financial goals.
Though equities have proven resilient, more of the long-expected effects of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) rapid interest rate-raising policy arrived in April.
The current Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) tightening cycle is approaching an end. This has been one of the most forceful as well as the fastest tightening cycle in history. However, because the federal funds rate was well below the neutral federal funds rate, the time it has been above that neutral level has not been that long.
Over the last week, the market saw volatility pick up after approaching the upper end of what we believe is the near-term trading range.
