Markets Contented by Soft Landing Prospects, AI Enthusiasm
As that information presents itself, we may see a fair bit of market choppiness. This is why, even though the market’s monthly moves are fascinating and informative, they are far from instructive for a long-term investor.
FOMC Scorecard: Dotplot-Dependent 1, Data-Dependent 0
The question many economists, as well as market participants, asked themselves after the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was why the Federal Reserve (Fed) paused its federal funds rate hike campaign if they were going to increase it again in July anyway.
Strike-Related Wage Deals Not Likely To Sway the Fed
Record-breaking heat waves dominate the news headlines, with 2023 shaping up to be one of, if not the hottest year on record. Extreme temperatures are shattering records across the U.S., Europe and in parts of Asia – not just on land, but also in the sea.
Investment-Grade Municipal Income in Intermediate to Long Maturities
High-quality investment grade municipal bonds provide growth-like returns for investors in a relatively more conservative investment vehicle than equities. Have your financial advisor assess the opportunity as it pertains to your specific goals.
The End of the Fed’s Tightening Cycle Is Drawing Near
The Fed is executing its playbook according to plan – get interest rates up quickly, keep tightening albeit at a more moderate pace, and then hold rates steady to allow real rates to nudge higher as inflation recedes.
Risks and Opportunities of a New Economic Era
Ed Mills, Managing Director, Washington Policy, discusses how recent U.S. policy decisions are the foundation for an industrial renaissance aimed at building up the economic base and protecting it against certain geopolitical and supply chain risks.
Employment Growth Is Still Too Hot, Even for This Economy
The U.S. economy grew at a more-than-expected 2.0% annualized rate of growth during the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter. In some sense, this rate of economic growth makes a little bit more sense than the previously reported 1.3% rate...
Equities Entering a New – and More Challenging – Stage
This weekend marks the official start of the Tour de France – one of the biggest cycling events in the world! Cyclists begin their journey in Bilboa, Spain and over the next 23 days will traverse through challenging terrain, covering a grueling ~2,200 miles.
Resilience of the Economy Remains Fed’s Biggest Challenge
The surprising resilience of the economy despite the aggressive tightening remains the Fed’s biggest challenge at this point in the cycle. Below we discuss how the Fed’s thinking will likely evolve for the remainder of the year and what it means for the markets.
Federal Reserve Pushes Pause on Interest Rate Hikes
For the first time since beginning the current tightening cycle in March 2022, the Fed opted against raising the federal funds rate at the June 14, 2023, FOMC meeting. The decision officially ends a run of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes by the central bank.
Fed’s Updated Economic Projections Coming at a Critical Time
While the Fed wants to retain optionality on further hikes and affirm rate cuts are not on the horizon for this year, we anticipate that slowing economic momentum and easing inflation pressures will lead to the beginning of an easing cycle in 2024.
Wheat, Gold and the Pursuit of a Zero-Correlation Investment
Diversification is a cornerstone of thoughtful, long-term focused investing. Incorporating assets and asset classes that don’t always move in tandem – that is, their returns aren’t strongly correlated – can help temper stock and bond market risk.
Inflation Continued its Disinflationary Path in April...
This week’s inflation numbers were mostly positive and benign for the U.S. economy as well as for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and confirms our view that, at least for now, the Fed is done increasing interest rates for this monetary tightening cycle.