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Treading Water
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The good news is that the economy does not appear to be contracting. The bad news is that its still not growing fast enough to make up much of the ground lost during the downturn. The unemployment rate fell to 8.6% in November, from 9.0% in October and 9.8% a year ago. However, more than half of that drop was due to a decrease in labor force participation. The data suggest an economy that is growing just enough to absorb the growth in the working-age population.
The Oath
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
The week before Thanksgiving has been up eight of the past nine years...that is up until last week. While many pundits cited the failed German Bund auction, Chinas slowing PMI Index, another bank stress test, a downwardly revised GDP report, Euroquake, etc.; my hunch is the real reason for the recent swoon is our own government. The breakdown of the Super Committee has clarified the differences between the two parties. Americans must now decide to accept either serious reductions in their healthcare and pension programs, or substantially higher taxes, and probably both.
The Joy of Cooking
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last Friday CNBCs Maria Bartiromo asked me what was going to happen with this weeks Super Committee decision? After jokingly responding that if past is prelude if the Super Committee doesnt arrive at a decision they will appoint a SuperDuper Committee, I then stated, I dont think the Super Committee will reach a consensus.I also opined, I believe there is a wink and a nod between President Obama and Speaker John Boehner to not implement the mandatory cuts and let the 2012 Presidential election resolve the debate between increased taxes and spending cuts.
Debt Story
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Loan growth plays a key role in economic expansion. Simply put: no loan growth, no economic growth. However, theres a downside. Debt doesnt matter until it does. Debt has played a key part in the economic downturn and in the gradual recovery. Europes sovereign debt crisis has continued to escalate, with no easy way out. In the U.S., the government has borrowed more, but the markets have not punished it for doing so. Theres no sign that that is going to change anytime soon.
Italian Job Redux
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
On Wednesday, Enel, the major Italian oil company, said, Its time to tell the truth to Italians. Number 1: The party is over. The party referenced is the welfare state that has careened so many Mediterranean countries down the entitlement road. Recently, driven by the sovereign debt markets, reality has arrived at the crossroads along with the realization that the welfare-state needs major austerity reforms. Ignoring lessons our union leaders steered us down the same road as Ohio voted to reverse a law designed to curb the bargaining power of unions representing public employees.
Super Committee To The Rescue?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Hows it going? Not good. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has to score the super committees recommendations and return its analysis to the committee by November 21, which would allow the committee two days to make changes before its final recommendations. The CBO was supposed to receive the bulk of the recommendations by late October or early November. Things are a little behind schedule. The committee seemed doomed to fail from its inception
Ich bin ein Berliner
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last week at the G20, like John Kennedy, President Obama tried to emphasize support for a German bailout plan to prevent a Greek tragedy. The tragedys trajectory rose sharply on Tuesday when Papandreou announced there would be a referendum to decide if the new austerity measures for a second bailout would be acceptable to the Greek people. That news shocked the worlds equity markets, which was reflected by the Dows Dive of some 297 points. I was seeing portfolio managers at the time and told them that in my opinion Papandreous prose was telegraphing a Greek withdrawal from the EU.
Crescendo?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Websters defines the word crescendo as, The peak of a gradual increase; or a climax. And, thats the climatic feeling I got last Thursday when the D-J Industrials sprinted some 340 points on the European euphoria to close above 12000 for the first time since August 2, 2011. Such action caused one old Wall Street wag to exclaim, Buy on the cannons and sell on the trumpets! Clearly we bought on the cannons back on October 4th when the indexes broke below their respective August 8th and 9th selling-climax lows.
Feeling Better?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The European debt agreement puts the concerns about Greece off to the side for the present. However, its unclear exactly how much the European stabilization fund will be increased and how it will be financed. The agreement doesnt do much to head off potential problems for Italy and Spain. The government debt situation in the UK is worse than in Spain and Italy but borrowing costs for Spain and Italy are much higher. Thats because Spain and Italy do not have their own monetary policy. There is inherent fragility in the monetary union. TheECB and the EU will have to address this at some point.
Fed Outlook More Asset Purchases?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Feds policymaking arm, will meet on November 2-3. Clearly, there are some differences of opinion among senior Fed officials regarding the appropriate path for monetary policy. However, the dissenters (those wanting to do less) are a small minority. The FOMC will come together with a somewhat less troublesome near-term economic outlook (no recession in the near term), but there are more concerns about growth in 2012.
Got Jobs?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Whether this stampede turns out to be that strong will likely depend on the economy, our changing political environment, and Europe. However, I remain cautiously optimistic, believing there is a change afoot inside DC whereby business people are being elected, fostering the hope of simple, market-based solutions to our Nations ills. And, over the last three weeks the stock market appears to be sensing this as well with winning sectors continuing to be Energy, Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials. Such sector rotation suggests the stock market believes things are getting better.
No Recession, At Least For Now
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Recent data have helped reduce fears that the U.S. economy is already in a recession. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about next year. Some of that uncertainty (gasoline prices) is beyond our control, but much is about policy both fiscal policy in the U.S. and efforts to right the ship in Europe. The outlook for growth in the remainder of this year appears a bit brighter than it did a couple of weeks ago. However, the 2012 economic outlook is still troublesome.
Wrong
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Near-term overbought is our short-term call, yet we think the lows are in for the year. Regrettably, we also believe there has been so much technical damage that the May 2nd intraday high of 1370.58 marks the high for the year. Nevertheless, we are buyers of favored stocks on weakness given our sense that there will be no recession and that earnings will continue to surprise on the upside.
The September Jobs Report Not Bad, Not Good
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The White Houses jobs package would aid the job market to some extent, but legislation has become bogged down in Congress and thats not all due to opposition from the Republicans. To pay for the jobs package, the White House has proposed reducing tax breaks and subsidies, the removal of which is opposed by members of both parties. So, theres not a lot of hope that well get a major jobs bill. That leaves Fed policy as the only game in town. Unfortunately, as Bernanke testified last week, theres only so much that the Fed can do.
Undercut Low?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
What do you mean by an undercut low? was a question I received in numerous emails after last Tuesdays verbal strategy comments. Well, for the past few months I have been talking about the similarities to the declines, and subsequent bottoming sequences, of October 1978 and October 1979. I know that the environments are very deferent but, I am referencing just the pricing action of the D-J Industrials. As often stated, those aforementioned declines were just as severe/quick, as what we experienced from the 7/27 intraday high of 12751.43 into the selling climax lows of August 8th and 9th.
The Economic Outlook In A Holding Pattern
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The consumer outlook is muddled. Spending growth hasnt been especially strong, but its not falling off a cliff. Real income growth has slowed, but lower gasoline prices may provide some relief over the next several months. Corporate profits and cash flows are strong, helping to support business fixed investment. However, were still facing a significant drag from fiscal policy and Europe is a major question mark. The anxieties of September are likely to continue into October and beyond.
Painful Ups and Downs
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Goodbye and good riddance to 3Q11, which has been the worst performing quarter for the SPX since 4Q08. Welcome to 4Q11, and the month of October, which has been termed the Bear Killer since many downtrends have found their nadir in the Halloween month. Indeed, recall that after being bearish since the Dow Theory sell signal of November 21, 2007, we turned bullish in October 2008 when 93% of all the stocks traded on the NYSE made new annual lows. Hopefully, this month will prove as kind for stocks as 2008.
Twist And Pout
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
As expected, the FOMC opted for Operation Twist, and will sell short-term Treasuries out of its portfolio and buy longer-term Treasuries. However, the size of the Feds operation was larger than anticipated and more out-the-curve, sending yields on long-term Treasuries tumbling sharply. In addition, to further aid the housing market, the FOMC voted to recycle is maturing mortgage-backed securities and agency debt back into mortgage-backed securities. So whats not to like? By themselves, the Feds latest moves arent going to lead to strong GDP growth anytime soon, but they should help.
Its 11:01?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Its 11:01 p.m., do you know where your children are? is a phrase that haunted me reminding my parents that I was out past my curfew. Similarly, investors asked themselves last week, Its 1101, do you know where your stocks are? as on Wednesday the Dow dove through last Mondays intraday low of 1188.36 and headed below the August 9th selling climax low of 1101.54. For 7 weeks I have discussed the importance of holding above the 1100 level, if our analogue to the October 1978 and October 1979 bottoming sequence is going to hold. So far, the correlation between then and now is remarkable.
Fed Policy Outlook Something, But What?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Fed policymakers meet this week at a critical juncture. Growth has slowed in the last few months no recession, but well below potential, leading to some softening in the labor market. Consumer price inflation has picked up in 2011 and August CPI figures were on the high side of expectations. In their public comments, Fed officials have been divided on the potential benefits and risks of additional policy accommodation. However, some action is expected on Wednesday. The only question is which tool the Fed will pull out of its kit.
Deja Vu?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Over the past 41 years I have observed a few comparisons that have had fairly good correlations to what was occurring at the time and have used them to help allay panic among investors at inappropriate times. Most recently, I have suggested the panic lows of August 4th and 8th showed such extreme panic-selling readings that participants had to go back to May 13, 1940, when the Germany Army broke through the Maginot Line and invaded France, to find similar panic levels. That observation was consistent with the analogue I have been using for two months.
Balance Grasshopper
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Over the weekend Greece did not default, although for over a year I have expressed the view that Greece has to default; a stance I continue to embrace. This morning, however, rumors are swirling again about a Greek default along with hints that Germany is not going to prevent it. That leaves the pre-opening futures down over 20 points, which would represent a retest of the selling-climax lows. While I am hopeful this will be a successful retest, consistent with the October 1978/1979 bottoming sequence, if 1100 is decisively broken it would imply the rally from the March 2009 lows is over.
Extraordinary Measures Needed
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
While Fed officials appear to be divided the hawks are a minority. More monetary stimulus is coming but its unclear whether this will include another round of asset purchases or a lengthening of maturities in the Feds asset holdings. Looking at Europe, its difficult to quantify the probability of a banking crisis, the exit of one or more countries from the monetary union, or a complete breakup. The political environment is difficult in a different sort of way than in the U.S. Fiscal and monetary policy efforts in the U.S. may not lead to a strong recovery anytime soon, but at least we try.
Can You Hear Me Now?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
In last weeks verbal strategy comments I cautioned to not pay up for stocks since the NYSE McClellan Oscillator was about as short-term overbought as it ever gets. Additionally, I stated that if this is a replay of the October 1978/1979 bottoming sequence we will have opportunities over the coming weeks to buy select stocks at lower prices. Given the European news over the weekend, and yesterdays Euroland equity markets meltdown, it should come as no surprise that the S&P 500 preopening futures are sharply lower this morning.
Policy Conundrums
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
In a week or so, President Obama will announce proposals to boost job growth and shore up the housing sector. These efforts, even if they could make it through Congress, would help somewhat, but wouldnt boost economic growth substantially. Bernankes Jackson Hole speech showed that the Fed chairman remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for the economy. Current difficulties are unlikely to affect the long-term growth potential, but he stressed that is if our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome.
The Summer Wind
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Just like the surfer interviewed over the weekend who grabbed a board and leapt into the Irene-induced waves, investors need to grab a board and catch a wave if they want to achieve success. But to do that, first you need to get into the water! The time to stand on-shore was months ago, not after a ~20% decline in the S&P 500 (SPX/1176.80) from its intraday high on May 2 to its intraday low on August 9. While we have been pretty conservative in our stock recommendations over the past three weeks, we would become more aggressive if the SPX can break out above the recent rally-high of ~1208.
Pounded
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I have been pounded with questions about the Dow Theory sell signal I spoke of; and, that occurred three weeks ago. The ubiquitous question has been Hey Jeff, how can you tell people to buy in light of the signal? My response has been that such a huge amount of energy had been used up in rendering the Dow Theory sell signal that the market, at least on a short-term trading basis, is likely a buy. Reinforcing that view are numerous oversold readings of epic proportions.
Whats A Central Banker To Do?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Kansas City Feds annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is attended by central bankers from around the world. For U.S. investors, the focus will be on Bernankes speech on Friday 8/26. Many market participants are hoping for a repeat of last year, when the Fed Chairman signaled the possibility of a second round of asset purchases QE2. However, while the August 9 Federal Open Market Committee indicated that its members were discussing a range of policy tools to promote growth, the FOMC is unlikely to pull the trigger on another round of asset purchases anytime soon.
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
While people who live in glass houses should not throw rocks, I have to observe how the media has trotted out super-bear Robert Prechter at every major stock market low for the past decade. They featured him again last week. Combine such anecdotal gleanings with the aforementioned market valuation metrics and it suggests a downside inflection point may have been reached. And while the bottoming process should take weeks, many individual stocks have likely already bottomed.
Rumours
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
When asked how he made his money, Mr. Rogers answered, I sell euphoria and buy panic. Currently, gold and Treasuries are gapping on the upside; and, stocks are gapping on the downside. The implication, though I believe gold is in a secular bull market, suggests positions should be sold in metals and the freed-up cash should be used to buy sound stocks with decent dividend yields. The weeks ahead will determine if this is the correct strategy. All said, IMO it is too late to panic. The time raise cash, was months ago. Now it is time to selectively redeploy that cash into select equities.
Crisis Averted, A Re-focusing On Prior Worries
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Fiscal policy in the U.S. and abroad is going the wrong way, weakening the prospects for global growth. What about monetary policy? In the U.S., Fed policymakers meet this week. As Chairman Bernanke testified in mid-July, even with the federal funds rate close to zero, we have a number of ways in which we could act to ease financial conditions further. The Fed could provide more explicit guidance on how long short-term interest rate would remain low and how long the balance sheet would be maintained at its current elevated level.
Default?
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
We have many great campaigners inside the D.C. Beltway, but far too few have the ability to govern given that their main concern is to get reelected. Maybe Warren Buffet had the right idea when he said, I could end the deficit in five minutes. You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than three percent of GDP all sitting members of congress are ineligible for reelection. As for the Nations AAA rating status, I think we are in for a downgrade no matter what happens inside the Beltway as the pendulum always swings too far in each direction.
The Advance 2Q11 GDP Report Feeling Nauseous
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The advance estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in somewhat lower than expected. Some of the second quarter's softness was transitory, but is there a danger of hitting stall speed? Will the debt ceiling crisis contribute to weaker growth? Real GDP growth rose at a 1.3% annual rate in the advance estimate for 2Q11. It's important to remember that these are preliminary figures. However, we don't expect the story to change very much. Annual benchmark revisions delivered downward adjustments to growth to 4Q10 and 1Q11 GDP. The revised 1Q11 GDP figure looked like a misprint. No such luck.
Name That Tune?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last week saw the U.S. Dollar Index decline by ~2.6% and gold tag a new all-time high of $1610.70. The real star of the week, however, was Sugars Surge of 7.87%. I cant imagine the President would want to go down in history as the Captain whose watch saw America lose its AAA status. Accordingly, I would continue to cautiously favor the upside, on a risk-adjusted basis, for if the debt ceiling is not raised we see another downside "hit." And this morning it looks like another hit, at least on a short-term basis, as our elected leaders continue to talk to the wind.
Worried
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last Monday proved to be a 90% Downside Day whereby 90% of the total volume traded came on the downside, while 90% of total points were likewise negative. Typically, 90% Downside Days are followed by rally attempts lasting five to seven sessions. Obviously, that wasnt the case last week and it concerns me. Also concerning is the fact the often mentioned 1320 level was violated and despite the three separate rally attempts that were staged to recapture 1320, it was all of no avail. This brings us to this week, where 2Q11 earnings reports will be Wall Streets focus.
The Debt Ceiling Crisis
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Some think that by not raising the debt ceiling the government will be prevented from spending more than it takes in. Thats a failure to understand the budget process. The money has been allocated. If the debt ceiling is not raised, interest payments would likely be made, but Medicare payments, Social Security payments, and veterans benefits may be delayed. Government workers may be sent home, but eventually paid (whether they work or not). Government contractors may not be paid on time. If this sounds like madness, well, as Forest Gumps momma said, stupid is as stupid does.
The Employment Outlook
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The June Employment Report, while disappointing, doesnt really tell us much about what to expect in the second half of the year. Its possible that seasonal job gains were shifted a bit forward this year-or perhaps higher gas prices are extracting a greater-than-expected toll in spending-or perhaps the job numbers will be revised. The June jobs data fit into the overall pattern of a slow patch. Thats also likely to be apparent in the advance GDP report released later this month. However the economy appears to have enough positive momentum to continue to grow in the second half of the year
I'm Back
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Indeed, I visited 10 European cities over the last two weeks, and spoke with roughly 200 PMs, most of which were bearish and/or very bearish on U.S. equities. Their fears centered on our countrys debt situation, the dollar, and the debt ceiling. It seems there is a genuine belief in Europe that the U.S. debt ceiling wont be increased, leading to a default with an attendant rating downgrade. The Europeans dont understand the political gamesmanship currently being played that will be resolved with a debt ceiling increase at the last minute.
What Sort Of Rebound In 2H11?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The recent data have been mixed, consistent with a slower rate of economic growth in the near term. The economy faced a number of headwinds in the first half of the year. Some of those headwinds are likely to be temporary. Others will linger. Growth should pick up in the second half of the year, but the pace seems unlikely to be especially strong. The markets showed little reaction to the May figures on personal income and spending. Real consumer spending appears to be on track for an annual rate of growth of 1% or less in 2Q11.
Happy Birthday America
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
For the past few weeks I have been suggesting the equity markets were in the process of bottoming. While my ideal pattern was for a downside selling-climax into the 1230 1250 zone, it just doesnt look like that is going to happen since the SPX tested, and held, its 200-DMA three times over the last few weeks. Yesterday our nation celebrated its 235th birthday. I commemorated the day by re-reading the lyrics from the Star-Spangled Banner in honor of our forefathers courage. While most citizens know the first stanza of said anthem, few know the other three. Nor do they know it's history.
The Fed Outlook: Uncertainty and Reluctance
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement and Chairman Bernankes post-meeting press conference held few surprises. Monetary policy is still accommodativeand still on hold. Theres also apparently little will at the Fed to do more to help the recovery along. Fortunately for the Fed and the consumer, we can catch a break if oil prices continue to decline. The Fed lowered its GDP forecast for this year to a range of 2.7%-2.9%. In January, the Fed was expecting 3.4% to 3.9%. Growth has slowed due to temporary factors, still the Fed lowered it's outlook.
Greetings From London
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
It is depressing that the equity market couldnt build on its 90% Upside Day of June 21. It is also depressing that the NASDAQ broke below its 200-DMA (COMP/2652.89), since we like leadership from the NASDAQ. Importantly, the recent decline is all about the fact that Selling Pressure has increased modestly, rather than a significant decline in Buying Power. Nevertheless, we are in defensive mode until the SPX can close above the 1292 1296 level, followed by a close bettering the 1316 1320 zone. To get really bullish would require a close above 1346. Until then, we remain circumspect ...
Down the Rabbit Hole
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
In last weeks comments I noted the SPX had been down for six consecutive weeks for only the 17th time since 1928. As Bespoke Investment Group wrote early last week, If there is any consolation for the bulls, it is that there have only been three weekly losing streaks of seven or more (weeks) for the index. (After six consecutive weeks down) in week seven, the SPX has risen an average of 1.03%. While last weeks gain of 0.52% fell short of that average, the SPX did manage to avoid its seventh weekly wilt. Not so for the NASDAQ, which recorded its seventh down week with a loss of 1.03%
What Can The Fed Do?
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Senior Fed officials meet next week amid what is widely seen as a slow patch in economic growth. A key question for investors, as well as for monetary policymakers, is whether this slowing will be temporary. Most likely, growth should pick up in the second half of the year. However, there are downside risks in the near term. Moreover, monetary policy appears to be handcuffed and fiscal policy is set to go in the wrong direction. The wide range of data have been consistent with a near-term slowing in economic activity.
Ouch
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
While equity markets can certainly do anything, if the SPX declines to the lows registered in March of 2009, which is what Walter Zimmerman thinks, and if the current earnings estimates are anywhere near the mark, it would leave the S&P 500 trading at less than 6x earnings with a dividend yield (excluding any dividend increases) approaching 5%. I just dont believe this is in the cards, given my assumption the economy is NOT going to double dip. Amid such market machination I think investors should keep their heads screwed-on straight and begin compiling their buying lists.
The Policy Stakes Are Raised
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
Its well known that recessions that are caused by financial crises are much more severe, are longer lasting, and are followed by gradual recoveries. Another lesson from history is that during these recoveries, policies are often tightened too soon. In 1937, efforts to balance the budget led to a recession within the Great Depression. Its said that those who dont remember the past are doomed to repeat it. Following the financial crisis, consumers and nonfinancial businesses deleveraged. However, that paydown in debt pales in comparison to the deleveraging seen in the financial sector.
There You Go Again
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
Last Wednesday was a 90% Downside Day, meaning 90% of the total points lost, and 90% of the total volume came on the downside. Typically, such Downside Days are followed by upside rebounds. Clearly, that did not happen, bringing into view the SPXs April intraday reaction low of 1294.70. Violating that would imply 1250 and then 1230. While I dont think that is what will happen, the stock market doesnt care much about what I think. Hence, the SPX had better hold above the April reaction lows or we will be forced to raise even more cash.
A Slow Patch
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
The recent economic data have been disappointing, but hardly a disaster. The broad range of indicators suggest a slowing in the pace of growth not a contraction. One month does not a trend make, but the data have generated some anxieties about whether the current slow patch could be a lot longer lasting or turn into something more severe. We started this year with a good deal of positive momentum. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose at a 4.0% annual rate in 4Q10. The economy still faced a number of headwinds. However, the positive momentum was expected to offset these headwinds.
The Growth Outlook: Long and Short
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
For decades, GDP growth has averaged a little over 3% per year, and most of the time, the level of GDP has been within 3% of this long-term trend. Theres some debate about whether this trend will continue. If it does, then we may see much stronger growth in the next several years (as we catch up). If not, then we have something to worry about. Its unclear exactly why 3% should be the norm. GDP is simply the amount of labor input times the productivity of labor. Growth in labor input and growth in productivity vary over time. Theres no special reason that they should sum to 3%.
Efficient Markets?!
by Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James,
I am writing this Monday night without the benefit of seeing Tuesday mornings pre-opening futures because I will be on a plane. Still, I am optimistic given last weeks backdrop. While it is clear economic statistics have softened, we believe this is largely attributable to Japan (Fukushima), the European debt debacle, the Middle East, and our continuing weird weather. That optimism is reinforced by another all-time high in corporate profits (before tax and adjusted for inventory valuation adjustment and capital allowance adjustment), which is good for capex and employment.
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