AI is advancing at an astonishing pace and undermining the core businesses of tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple. But it is not only transforming the applications we use; it is also reshaping the very process of software development, threatening to render much of today’s tech sector obsolete.

With US economic policies driving financial and economic volatility and rousing the bond vigilantes, it is an open question whether we are witnessing the fragmenting of the international order, or just a bumpy ride toward a beneficial overhaul. Five factors could clarify the answer.

China’s prolonged reliance on fiscal stimulus has distorted economic incentives, fueling a housing glut, a collapse in prices, and spiraling public debt. With further stimulus off the table, the only sustainable path is for the central government to relinquish more economic power to local governments and the private sector.

US President Donald Trump’s focus on “reciprocal tariffs,” rather than balanced trade, does not suggest that his administration intends to use tariffs strategically to cut the country’s chronic trade deficit. But Democrats must stop dismissing outright a policy tool that they themselves embraced under Biden.

Without a robust regulatory framework that incentivizes stablecoin issuers to register in the United States, stablecoin activity will migrate to countries with weaker rules, increasing the likelihood of financial instability. Fortunately, the US can still head off these risks and reap the technology’s benefits.

Above-target US inflation and a strong labor market reflect robust economic fundamentals. But the biggest risks to the US economy’s continued growth are Donald Trump’s erratic communication and, perhaps more importantly, his populist trade and immigration policies.

Perhaps US efforts to cut off China’s access to advanced semiconductors will be more successful than analogous restrictions on tech exports to France in the 1960s. But we now have at least one data point – DeepSeek – that suggests otherwise.

No country wants external developments to drive up its borrowing costs and weaken its currency, which is what the UK is facing today, together with serious cyclical and structural challenges. But if the British government responds appropriately, recent market volatility might turn out to have a silver lining.

Despite Donald Trump’s assurances that he will not seek to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, there is little doubt that the US president-elect aims to gain greater influence over the Fed’s decision-making. Such interference could drive up long-term interest rates, damaging the American economy.

In a complex economy, agents must rely on intermediaries – including the traditional media, government, or experts – to close information gaps, anchor beliefs, and determine equilibrium. But this process can work only if the intermediaries are trustworthy, and many Americans are not convinced that they are.

The modern Chinese political system emphasizes stability and control, qualities that enabled the country to become the world’s “ultimate producer.” But these qualities imply tight control over social norms and individual behavior, and they are far less applicable to official efforts to boost household consumption.

Although AI has great potential to bring exciting changes to education, art, medicine, robotics, and other fields, it also poses major risks, most of which are not being addressed. Judging by the response so far from political and other institutions, we can safely expect many years of instability.

As Germany and France head into another year of near-zero growth, it is clear that Keynesian stimulus alone cannot pull them out of their current malaise. To regain the dynamism and flexibility needed to weather US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs, Europe’s largest economies must pursue far-reaching structural reforms.

US President-elect Donald Trump's administration will face a wary, inflation-sensitive public and a Chinese regime that is well prepared to pursue large-scale retaliation. If it is serious about introducing new tariffs, it will need to clarify its priorities and then choose among conflicting policy goals.

With his remarkable electoral comeback, Donald Trump has defined an era in American political history. But his legacy will depend on whether his policies advance long-term American prosperity by cutting taxes and boosting investment, or undermine it with trade wars and mass deportations.

Expressions of dissatisfaction with the global dominance of the dollar go back at least to French finance minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1965. But even today, the euro is no challenger to the greenback, and no one should hold their breath waiting for the BRICS to unveil their own attempt at an alternative currency.

The economy played a critical role in the 2024 presidential race, creating the conditions not only for Donald Trump to trounce Kamala Harris, but also for a counter-elite to usher in a new power structure. Will the Democrats and “establishment” experts get the message?

Donald Trump is offering a vision of crony rentier capitalism that has enticed many captains of industry and finance. In catering to their wishes for more tax cuts and less regulation, he would make most Americans’ lives poorer, harder, and shorter.

If you listen to tech industry leaders, business-sector forecasters, and much of the media, you may believe that recent advances in generative AI will soon bring extraordinary productivity benefits, revolutionizing life as we know it. Yet neither economic theory nor the data support such exuberant forecasts.

If UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves tried to meet all the political demands that have been placed on her, her budget would likely result in disappointing growth and financial instability. Instead, the new government's first budget should be judged according to four longer-term criteria.

Regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the US presidential election in November, Chinese decision-makers expect bitter disputes over trade, technology, and Taiwan. Feeling under siege, China is girding itself for long-term enmity with the world’s largest economy.

The US economic data released in early August not only triggered a brief, but dramatic episode of financial-market volatility. It also fueled an abnormal degree of instability in forecasts by leading Wall Street economists, suggesting that they, like the Federal Reserve, may have lost their strategic bearings.

Those warning that the US Federal Reserve is dragging the economy down are deeply mistaken. Far from being too restrictive, US monetary policy is almost certainly too loose, judging by the robustness of financial markets and broader economic conditions even after 500 basis points of interest-rate hikes.

Artificial intelligence has the potential to reshape our economies, labor markets, societies, and politics. But despite the rosy forecasts of an AI-driven boom, history shows that technological advances rarely lead to immediate improvements in living standards and often lead to profound disruption.

With its current course leading only to economic stagnation, the EU must establish a vision for a more dynamic, productive future. Above all, Europeans must answer a simple but critical question: What should the EU look like – in terms of innovation, the economy, security, and resilience – in a decade?

The US Treasury’s debt-issuance polices have become a powerful form of policy easing. By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut to the Fed’s policy rate, impeding the central bank’s efforts to control inflation.

After absorbing the US Federal Reserve's repeated assurances that a “fundamentally healthy” economy gave it ample time to decide on when to cut interest rates, the market was caught by surprise when new data suggested otherwise. Such is the danger of signaling a consensus where none exists.

The US Federal Reserve appears to have finally brought about the recession that it engineers whenever unemployment is low and the president is a Democrat. If it costs the party the White House in November, may its leaders use their time out of power to reflect on the unwisdom of their decades-old bargain with Wall Street.

While gold prices rise due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the US stock market is breaking records, and global demand for the dollar remains robust. This can be attributed to growing confidence in the US economy, which continues to surprise on the upside.

US stock markets have remained bullish in the face of deepening domestic and international risks, owing to three key factors. But with two of these coming under pressure, the durability of the current cycle will depend on the third: the US Federal Reserve.

Investors are betting on interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September, and potentially even in late July. But the outlook for inflation and the labor market in the United States does not indicate that policymakers should begin lowering rates in the next two months.

The China trade shock of the 1990s and 2000s is widely blamed for hollowing out the US manufacturing sector. But anyone who thinks that unwinding trade with China will not result in price increases and significant political backlash is in for a rude awakening.

Philanthropy is not a substitute for government action in areas like health, education, and the distribution of income and wealth, but it can advance public goods and improve human well-being. The key is to design institutions that deliver the reputational benefits that donors crave.

Father Gregory Boyle developed the world’s largest gang intervention and rehabilitation program based on the belief that jobs stop bullets. Following his lead, US policymakers must learn to appreciate the broader meaning of work as they navigate uncertain economic waters, particularly the looming artificial-intelligence revolution.

After years of insufficient investment and sagging productivity in the UK, the Labour Party recognizes that achieving high-quality growth will require a comprehensive policy approach that builds on many intermediate objectives. But devising a strategy is only the first step; the real challenge lies in implementation.

Americans remain pessimistic about the state of the economy largely because the big jump in prices overwhelmingly outweighs the drop in inflation. Unfortunately, the current state of US politics means that more attention will be paid to assigning blame, rather than debating solutions, ahead of November’s presidential election.

Readers of the IMF’s latest annual review of the US economy will be startled to learn that, in the Fund’s estimation, US government debt is on a sustainable path. That assessment makes sense – but it is only as good as the assumptions that underpin it.

While rules-based monetary policy thrived when globalization put downward pressure on inflation, the COVID-19 pandemic has revived central bankers’ long-dormant preference for inflationary policies. This shift may help central banks maintain their independence, but it also increases the likelihood of another surge of price growth.

America’s political leaders have resorted to playing the blame game to convince voters that they are fixing the country’s trade deficit. But by going after China, they are ignoring the root of the problem – the American government’s unchecked spending – while increasing the risk of a full-blown superpower conflict.

Making the power sector fit for the twenty-first century requires a “banker” that finances and coordinates relevant long-term investments, and an “architect” that guides the development of a complex, interconnected smart-grid system. National governments need to fill both roles.

The current debate about generative AI focuses disproportionately on the disruption it might unleash. While it is true technological advances always disrupt legacy industries and existing systems and processes, one must not ignore the opportunities they can create or the risks they can mitigate.

The dollar's strength, particularly against major Asian currencies, has triggered a wave of skittishness in financial markets. Can anything be done to stem the greenback's rise, and even if something can be done, should it?

The first-quarter GDP report supports the view that the US economy has not landed. While some economists are concerned about stagflation, the real worry is that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn, given strong consumer spending and inadequately restrictive monetary policy.

Until recently, any suggestion of fiscal prudence was quickly dismissed as “austerity” by economists on the left. But with higher interest rates fast becoming the new normal, the idea that any economic problem can be solved with more government borrowing has become untenable.

Following yet another release of US macroeconomic data that lies outside the range that anyone had predicted, the only certainty is that forecasters' jobs are not getting any easier. But while the global outlook is growing murkier, it has not become inscrutable.

Nouriel Roubini, Stephen S. Roach, Nancy Qian, and more assess what it will take to improve the country’s economic prospects.

For the last several years, world leaders have made big promises and laid out bold plans to mitigate the climate crisis and help the neediest countries adapt. At this year's World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, they must demonstrate that they can fulfill these promises, rather than simply touting new ones.

Germany’s ongoing economic weakness suggests that the European Union’s long-term economic slump is not likely to end anytime soon. But with traditional laggards like Italy and France showing signs of recovery, and Central and East European members performing well, the bloc’s economic outlook could still take a turn for the better.

The question of whether the US dollar will be dethroned by a cryptocurrency, a stablecoin, or some other digital asset or payments system ultimately misses the point. What really matters is the mix of possible alternatives that today's evolving financial landscape will offer to governments pursuing a geopolitical advantage.

While China obviously needs to boost private-sector confidence and revive growth with a more sustainable economic model, it is not clear that Chinese leaders fully appreciate the challenges they face. The shift back to state capitalism over the last decade is plainly incompatible with President Xi Jinping’s development goals.