Ongoing congressional gridlock will be the key to continued buoyancy in US equity markets, says Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky. It’s when Trump’s agenda starts to be implemented that the euphoria will wane.
The public reaction to recent proposals that robots be taxed when they replace human labor has been largely negative. But a moderate tax on robots – even a temporary levy that merely slows the adoption of disruptive technology – seems like a natural and obvious component of any policy to address rising inequality.
While financial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in hard data, such as GDP growth, economists and policymakers remain unsure. Whether their doubts are vindicated will matter for both the US and the world economy.
The eurozone could surprise everyone with a dramatic recovery this year, says Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky, so long as populists stay out of power.
Donald Trump took office promising a raft of sweeping economic-policy changes. He has quickly discovered, like previous US presidents, that America’s political system is designed to prevent rapid, large-scale change, by interposing formidable institutional obstacles.
The proposed border adjustment tax in the US has not seeped into public consciousness in nearly the same way as Trump’s physical wall has. But the tax-and-subsidy scheme could end up affecting the average American a lot more – and not necessarily in a good way.
US Republican leaders claim that a border-adjustment tax – which would effectively subsidize US exporters and penalize importers – would improve the US trade balance and boost domestic production, investment, and employment. They are wrong.
Since the end of World War II, America’s share of global output has fallen from nearly 30% to about 18%, yet the US dollar retains its dominant position as the world’s reserve currency – and by a solid margin. When – and how – will that change?
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the conventional wisdom has been that a long, difficult recovery for eurozone economies will eventually lead to strong growth. But this narrative is losing credibility, as various trends suggest that Europe is trapped in a semi-permanent low-growth equilibrium.
The island's deep and long-lasting recession has made its debt position unsustainable. But the latest fiscal plan imposed by the US commonwealth's federal overseers openly assumes that a Venezuela-scale depression will somehow bring about recovery.