We analyze March’s stock market decline as pricing in the first-order effect of higher risk premiums associated with COVID-19. We produce a simple model that shows that the estimated daily growth rate of COVID-19 forecasts stock returns and discuss market implications.
We analyze the historical reactions of various assets to past U.S. military actions in the Middle East to provide insight into what the current U.S.-Iran tensions may mean for markets in 2020. We examine the S&P 500, crude oil, gold, U.S. dollar, and U.S. 10-year Treasuries.
